Scotland v FYR Macedonia

19:45 UTC

Over 1.5: 64%
Over 2.5: 37%
Over 3.5: 17%
Both score: 39%

Model pick: Scotland 55%
Likely score: 1-0 16%
Expected goals: 1.47 – 0.70

Advised bets

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Model pick: Total goals

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Our probabilities against the market

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Scotland favoured against FYR Macedonia

Our model makes Scotland 55% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 28% and FYR Macedonia at 17%. The goal projection is 1.47 for Scotland against 0.70 for FYR Macedonia — a substantial edge to Scotland on expected output. A combined 2.17 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 37% and both teams to score at 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 16%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 16%; 1-1 12%; 2-0 12%; 0-0 12%; 2-1 9%

This season

Season records for Scotland and FYR Macedonia
Scotland		FYR Macedonia
4	Played	4
1-1-2	W-D-L	0-0-4
1.00	Pts / game	0.00
0.75	Goals for / game	0.00
1.25	Goals against / game	2.50
50%	Over 2.5	50%
25%	BTTS	0%
50%	Clean sheets	0%
50%	Failed to score	100%
0-0-2	Home record	0-0-2
1-1-0	Away record	0-0-2
L1	Streak	L4

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Scotland · FYR Macedonia

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	5.8
5.3	Shots on target	0.3
4.0	Corners	1.8
1.75	Cards	3.00
14.0	Fouls	13.0
47	Possession %	47
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
11.5	Shots	21.0
3.3	Shots on target	8.3
4.0	Corners	7.0
3.00	Cards	0.75
16.0	Fouls	10.0
54	Possession %	53
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Scotland	Metric	FYR Macedonia
0.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.00
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.80
1.69 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.30
	Big chances
5.20 (better)	Shots on target	0.60
14.00 (better)	Total shots	5.80
	Touches in opp. box
4.60 (better)	Corners	1.60
46.4 (better)	Possession %	45.6
457 (better)	Passes	418
	Tackles
13.20	Fouls	12.80 (better)
0.80 (better)	Offsides	1.20
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	2.60
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Scotland wins: 1
Draws: 0
FYR Macedonia wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

FYR Macedonia v Scotland0–22026-10-03