FYR Macedonia v 
Scotland
Match statistics
| FYR Macedonia | Scotland | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots | 25 |
| 0 | Shots on target | 10 |
| 1 | Corners | 9 |
| 20 | Fouls | 13 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 480 | Passes | 365 |
| 56% | Possession % | 44% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 62%
- Over 2.5
- 34%
- Over 3.5
- 16%
- Both score
- 41%
- Model pick
- Scotland 46%
- Likely score
- 0-1 15%
- Expected goals
- 0.81 – 1.27
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Draw
Why this price?
Back the draw at 3.90 with Betfair.
Our model puts the chance at 31%, which is a fair price of 3.27. The offered 3.90 implies only 26%, so the price is 19.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.67 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: FYR Macedonia 0.81, Scotland 1.27.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 2 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 1.75 with 1xBet — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 66%, which is a fair price of 1.53. The offered 1.75 implies only 57%, so the price is 14.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: FYR Macedonia 0.81, Scotland 1.27.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | FYR Macedonia | 23.0% | 4.34 | 6.10 Betano | 16.4% | +6.6 |
| Match result | Draw | 30.6% | 3.27 | 3.65 Betano | 27.4% | +3.2 |
| Match result | Scotland | 46.3% | 2.16 | 1.75 Betfair | 57.1% | -10.8 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 62.3% | 1.61 | 1.44 Betano | 69.4% | -7.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 37.7% | 2.65 | 3.10 Betfair | 32.3% | +5.5 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 34.5% | 2.90 | 2.30 Betano | 43.5% | -9.0 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.75 Betfair | 57.1% | +8.4 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 15.7% | 6.35 | 4.33 BetVictor | 23.1% | -7.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 84.3% | 1.19 | 1.24 Betano | 80.6% | +3.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 40.7% | 2.46 | 2.15 Betfair | 46.5% | -5.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 59.3% | 1.69 | 1.73 Betfair | 57.8% | +1.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Scotland favoured against FYR Macedonia
Our model makes FYR Macedonia 23% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 31% and Scotland at 46%. The goal projection is 0.81 for FYR Macedonia against 1.27 for Scotland — a clear edge to Scotland on expected output. A combined 2.08 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 34% and both teams to score at 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 0-1 15%
- 1-1 14%
- 0-0 13%
- 0-2 10%
- 1-0 9%
This season
| FYR Macedonia | Scotland | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Played | 4 |
| 0-0-4 | W-D-L | 1-1-2 |
| 0.00 | Pts / game | 1.00 |
| 0.00 | Goals for / game | 0.75 |
| 2.50 | Goals against / game | 1.25 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 0% | BTTS | 25% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 100% | Failed to score | 50% |
| 0-0-2 | Home record | 0-0-2 |
| 0-0-2 | Away record | 1-1-0 |
| L4 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. FYR Macedonia · Scotland
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 5.8 | Shots | 14.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 1.8 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 3.00 | Cards | 1.75 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 14.0 |
| 47 | Possession % | 47 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 21.0 | Shots | 11.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 8.3 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 7.0 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 0.75 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 16.0 |
| 53 | Possession % | 54 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| FYR Macedonia | Metric | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | Goals scored | 1.00 (better) |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded | 0.80 (better) |
| Expected goals (xG) | 0.87 | |
| Big chances | ||
| 0.80 | Shots on target | 4.00 (better) |
| 3.20 | Total shots | 13.20 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 1.00 | Corners | 4.40 (better) |
| 37.8 | Possession % | 48.8 (better) |
| 366 | Passes | 466 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.60 (better) | Fouls | 15.20 |
| 0.40 (better) | Offsides | 0.60 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.80 | Yellow cards | 1.40 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- FYR Macedonia wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Scotland wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- FYR Macedonia v Scotland0–22026-10-03