Luxembourg v Estonia

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Model pick: Total goals

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Members only

Model pick: Asian handicap

Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.

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Our probabilities against the market

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Every market, priced — members only

11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Estonia favoured against Luxembourg

Our model makes Luxembourg 25% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 34% and Estonia at 42%. The goal projection is 0.75 for Luxembourg against 1.06 for Estonia — a clear edge to Estonia on expected output. A combined 1.80 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 27% and both teams to score at 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 17%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-0 17%; 0-1 17%; 1-1 14%; 1-0 12%; 0-2 9%

This season

Season records for Luxembourg and Estonia
Luxembourg		Estonia
4	Played	4
1-0-3	W-D-L	1-3-0
0.75	Pts / game	1.50
0.50	Goals for / game	0.50
1.75	Goals against / game	0.25
50%	Over 2.5	0%
25%	BTTS	25%
0%	Clean sheets	75%
75%	Failed to score	50%
0-0-2	Home record	1-1-0
1-0-1	Away record	0-2-0
L3	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Luxembourg · Estonia

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.5	Shots	10.3
4.3	Shots on target	4.8
3.5	Corners	4.8
2.75	Cards	2.00
13.8	Fouls	15.5
56	Possession %	42
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.5	Shots	14.0
6.3	Shots on target	3.3
4.5	Corners	5.8
3.00	Cards	2.75
12.8	Fouls	10.8
44	Possession %	59
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Luxembourg	Metric	Estonia
0.60	Goals scored	0.60
1.40	Goals conceded	0.20 (better)
0.69	Expected goals (xG)	1.13 (better)
	Big chances
4.25	Shots on target	4.75 (better)
11.50 (better)	Total shots	10.25
	Touches in opp. box
3.50	Corners	4.75 (better)
57.0 (better)	Possession %	41.5
542 (better)	Passes	370
	Tackles
13.75 (better)	Fouls	15.50
2.00	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.75	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Luxembourg wins: 0
Draws: 0
Estonia wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Estonia v Luxembourg1–02026-10-03