Estonia v 
Luxembourg
Match statistics
| Estonia | Luxembourg | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 13 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 6 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 4 | Offsides | 2 |
| 450 | Passes | 530 |
| 46% | Possession % | 54% |
| — | xG | — |
- Over 1.5
- 67%
- Over 2.5
- 40%
- Over 3.5
- 20%
- Both score
- 46%
- Model pick
- Luxembourg 43%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 0.97 – 1.31
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Luxembourg 0
Why this price?
Back Luxembourg 0 on the Asian handicap at 1.95 with Bet365 — Luxembourg to win; a draw returns the stake.
Our model puts the chance at 62% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 53%; we judge it at 56%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.78. The offered 1.95 implies only 51%, so the price is 9.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Estonia 0.97, Luxembourg 1.31.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Estonia | 27.0% | 3.70 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | -6.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 29.6% | 3.38 | 3.15 Betano | 31.7% | -2.2 |
| Match result | Luxembourg | 43.4% | 2.30 | 2.62 Bet365 | 38.2% | +5.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 67.2% | 1.49 | 1.57 Betano | 63.7% | +3.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 32.8% | 3.05 | 2.75 Bet365 | 36.4% | -3.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 39.8% | 2.51 | 2.35 Bet365 | 42.6% | -2.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 60.2% | 1.66 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | +0.3 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 19.6% | 5.09 | 5.75 BetVictor | 17.4% | +2.2 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 80.4% | 1.24 | 1.25 Bet365 | 80.0% | +0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 46.1% | 2.17 | 2.20 Bet365 | 45.5% | +0.7 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 53.9% | 1.86 | 1.87 Betano | 53.5% | +0.4 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Luxembourg favoured against Estonia
Our model makes Estonia 27% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 30% and Luxembourg at 43%. The goal projection is 0.97 for Estonia against 1.31 for Luxembourg — a clear edge to Luxembourg on expected output. A combined 2.28 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-1 13%
- 0-0 11%
- 1-0 9%
- 0-2 9%
This season
| Estonia | Luxembourg | |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Played | 4 |
| 1-3-0 | W-D-L | 1-0-3 |
| 1.50 | Pts / game | 0.75 |
| 0.50 | Goals for / game | 0.50 |
| 0.25 | Goals against / game | 1.75 |
| 0% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 25% | BTTS | 25% |
| 75% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 75% |
| 1-1-0 | Home record | 0-0-2 |
| 0-2-0 | Away record | 1-0-1 |
| D1 | Streak | L3 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Estonia · Luxembourg
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 10.3 | Shots | 11.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 4.8 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.75 |
| 15.5 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 42 | Possession % | 56 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 14.0 | Shots | 12.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3 | Shots on target | 6.3 |
| 5.8 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.75 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 12.8 |
| 59 | Possession % | 44 |
| — | xG | — |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Estonia | Metric | Luxembourg |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 1.60 (better) |
| 0.80 | Goals conceded | 0.40 (better) |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 8.00 | Total shots | 11.25 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.00 | Corners | 3.50 (better) |
| 37.0 | Possession % | 54.0 (better) |
| 313 | Passes | 462 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.00 (better) | Fouls | 13.75 |
| 0.00 (better) | Offsides | 1.75 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 1.50 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Estonia wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Luxembourg wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Estonia v Luxembourg1–02026-10-03