Port Vale v Accrington ST

Advised bets

Members only

Model pick: Asian handicap

Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.

Unlock every pick Already a member? Sign in →

Members only

Model pick: Total goals

Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.

Unlock every pick Already a member? Sign in →

Our probabilities against the market

Members

Every market, priced — members only

11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

Unlock every pick

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Port Vale v Accrington ST: too close to call

Our model makes Port Vale 32% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 30% and Accrington ST at 38%. The goal projection is 1.05 for Port Vale against 1.19 for Accrington ST — a slight edge to Accrington ST on expected output. A combined 2.24 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-1 12%; 0-0 11%; 1-0 11%; 1-2 8%

This season

Season records for Port Vale and Accrington ST
Port Vale		Accrington ST
12	Played	14
4-3-5	W-D-L	4-7-3
1.25	Pts / game	1.36
0.83	Goals for / game	1.64
1.17	Goals against / game	1.21
17%	Over 2.5	50%
33%	BTTS	64%
33%	Clean sheets	29%
42%	Failed to score	21%
4-2-0	Home record	3-4-0
0-1-5	Away record	1-3-3
W1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Port Vale · Accrington ST

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.6	Shots	17.1
4.8	Shots on target	5.1
4.8	Corners	6.9
1.60	Cards	2.29
10.0	Fouls	11.9
49	Possession %	47
1.79	xG	1.23
5 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.4	Shots	7.7
3.6	Shots on target	2.3
5.8	Corners	3.9
1.60	Cards	2.00
12.0	Fouls	10.9
51	Possession %	53
0.92	xG	0.72
5 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Port Vale	Metric	Accrington ST
2.20 (better)	Goals scored	2.00
1.00	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
1.32	Expected goals (xG)	1.88 (better)
	Big chances
5.20	Shots on target	5.20
11.60	Total shots	17.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.80	Corners	6.60 (better)
47.6	Possession %	47.8 (better)
392 (better)	Passes	332
	Tackles
10.80 (better)	Fouls	12.40
3.00	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

No previous meetings on record.

League Two table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Salford City	14	10	1	3	+10	31	Salford City won 5 of the last 5
2	Barnet	13	7	5	1	+10	26	Barnet won 2 of the last 5
3	Walsall	13	5	7	1	+9	22	Walsall won 2 of the last 5
4	Crewe	14	5	7	2	0	22	Crewe won 2 of the last 5
5	Cheltenham	14	6	3	5	-2	21	Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5
6	Grimsby	14	5	5	4	+6	20	Grimsby won 2 of the last 5
7	York	14	5	5	4	+3	20	York won 1 of the last 5
8	Gillingham	14	5	5	4	+1	20	Gillingham won 2 of the last 5
9	Accrington ST	14	4	7	3	+6	19	Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5
10	Chesterfield	14	5	4	5	+3	19	Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5
11	Tranmere	14	4	7	3	+2	19	Tranmere won 2 of the last 5
12	Exeter City	14	5	4	5	+2	19	Exeter City won 3 of the last 5
13	Swindon Town	14	5	4	5	-2	19	Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5
14	Newport County	14	4	6	4	+3	18	Newport County won 2 of the last 5
15	Shrewsbury	14	5	3	6	-5	18	Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5
16	Fleetwood Town	14	4	5	5	0	17	Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5
17	Bristol Rovers	14	5	1	8	-6	16	Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5
18	Oldham	14	4	3	7	-4	15	Oldham won 2 of the last 5
19	Port Vale	12	4	3	5	-4	15	Port Vale won 3 of the last 5
20	Rochdale	14	4	3	7	-9	15	Rochdale won 0 of the last 5
21	Northampton	13	3	5	5	-1	14	Northampton won 2 of the last 5
22	Rotherham	14	2	6	6	-7	12	Rotherham won 0 of the last 5
23	Colchester	13	2	6	5	-7	12	Colchester won 0 of the last 5
24	Crawley Town	12	2	3	7	-8	9	Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5