Northern Ireland v Ukraine

19:45 UTC

Over 1.5: 57%
Over 2.5: 29%
Over 3.5: 12%
Both score: 37%

Model pick: Northern Ireland 40%
Likely score: 0-0 16%
Expected goals: 1.06 – 0.82

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Model pick: Total goals

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Model pick: Asian handicap

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Our probabilities against the market

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Northern Ireland favoured against Ukraine

Our model makes Northern Ireland 40% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 33% and Ukraine at 27%. The goal projection is 1.06 for Northern Ireland against 0.82 for Ukraine — a slight edge to Northern Ireland on expected output. A combined 1.88 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 29% and both teams to score at 37%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 16%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-0 16%; 1-0 15%; 1-1 14%; 0-1 12%; 2-0 9%

This season

Season records for Northern Ireland and Ukraine
Northern Ireland		Ukraine
4	Played	4
2-2-0	W-D-L	1-1-2
2.00	Pts / game	1.00
1.00	Goals for / game	0.50
0.00	Goals against / game	1.25
25%	Over 2.5	50%
0%	BTTS	25%
100%	Clean sheets	50%
50%	Failed to score	50%
0-2-0	Home record	0-0-2
2-0-0	Away record	1-1-0
D1	Streak	L2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Northern Ireland · Ukraine

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.8	Shots	11.3
4.0	Shots on target	2.3
3.3	Corners	3.5
2.00	Cards	3.25
10.5	Fouls	14.5
35	Possession %	55
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.5	Shots	12.8
2.5	Shots on target	4.0
5.5	Corners	3.3
2.50	Cards	2.25
14.3	Fouls	10.5
65	Possession %	45
—	xG	—
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Northern Ireland	Metric	Ukraine
1.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.33 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.54
	Big chances
3.60 (better)	Shots on target	2.20
10.20 (better)	Total shots	9.60
	Touches in opp. box
2.80	Corners	3.20 (better)
33.2	Possession %	53.0 (better)
317	Passes	480 (better)
	Tackles
9.80 (better)	Fouls	14.20
2.25	Offsides	1.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.80
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Northern Ireland wins: 1
Draws: 0
Ukraine wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Ukraine v Northern Ireland0–32026-10-02