Ukraine v Northern Ireland
- Over 1.5
- 59%
- Over 2.5
- 31%
- Over 3.5
- 13%
- Both score
- 39%
- Model pick
- Northern Ireland 39%
- Likely score
- 0-0 15%
- Expected goals
- 0.88 – 1.07
Advised bets
Advised betfree for everyone
★★★★Confidence 4 of 5- Selection
- Draw
- Advised price
- 3.48 (Marathonbet)
- Stake
- 1.39 units
- Fair price
- 3.06 · qualifies at 3.24+
Back the draw at 3.48 with Marathonbet.
Our model puts the chance at 33%, which is a fair price of 3.06. The offered 3.48 implies only 29%, so the price is 13.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.39 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Ukraine 0.88, Northern Ireland 1.07.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Premium selection
★★★★★Confidence 5 of 5- Market
- Total goals
- Modelled edge
- very large
This selection is available to Predicted Edge subscribers: the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning. It is settled in the public archive like every free selection, win or lose.
Our probabilities against the marketFree
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Ukraine | 28.5% | 3.51 | 1.87 Marathonbet | 53.5% | -25.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 32.7% | 3.06 | 3.48 Marathonbet | 28.7% | +4.0 |
| Match result | Northern Ireland | 38.8% | 2.58 | 4.60 Betano | 21.7% | +17.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 41.1% | 2.44 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 31.1% | 3.22 | 2.35 Betano | 42.6% | -11.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | 1.64 Marathonbet | 61.0% | +8.0 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 13.5% | 7.43 | — | — | — |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 86.5% | 1.16 | — | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 39.3% | 2.54 | 2.05 Betano | 48.8% | -9.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 60.7% | 1.65 | 1.80 Betfair | 55.6% | +5.1 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a bet is only advised where the gap clears our threshold after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Premium markets
1 premium selection on this fixture- Asian handicap
- Correct score
- Total goals
The model prices these markets for every fixture. Where a price clears the value threshold, patrons see the selection, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning behind it.
Northern Ireland favoured against Ukraine
Our model makes Ukraine 29% to win this UEFA Nations League fixture, with the draw at 33% and Northern Ireland at 39%. The goal projection is 0.88 for Ukraine against 1.07 for Northern Ireland — a slight edge to Northern Ireland on expected output. A combined 1.95 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 31% and both teams to score at 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 0-0 15%
- 0-1 14%
- 1-1 14%
- 1-0 12%
- 0-2 8%
This season
| Ukraine | Northern Ireland | |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Played | 2 |
| 1-1-0 | W-D-L | 1-1-0 |
| 2.00 | Pts / game | 2.00 |
| 0.50 | Goals for / game | 0.50 |
| 0.00 | Goals against / game | 0.00 |
| 0% | Over 2.5 | 0% |
| 0% | BTTS | 0% |
| 100% | Clean sheets | 100% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 50% |
| 0-0-0 | Home record | 0-1-0 |
| 1-1-0 | Away record | 1-0-0 |
| D1 | Streak | D1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ukraine · Northern Ireland
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 8.5 | Shots | 12.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 1.0 | Corners | 1.0 |
| 4.50 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 16.5 | Fouls | 14.0 |
| 47 | Possession % | 38 |
| — | xG | — |
| 2 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Conceded
| 15.5 | Shots | 11.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 9.0 |
| 3.00 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 12.5 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 53 | Possession % | 62 |
| — | xG | — |
| 2 matches | sample | 1 matches |
Form comparison
| Ukraine | Metric | Northern Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 (better) | Goals scored | 0.80 |
| 0.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.20 |
| Expected goals (xG) | ||
| Big chances | ||
| 2.00 | Shots on target | 3.20 (better) |
| 5.67 | Total shots | 8.60 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 1.33 | Corners | 1.60 (better) |
| 47.3 (better) | Possession % | 35.2 |
| 345 (better) | Passes | 332 |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.00 | Fouls | 9.60 (better) |
| 1.33 (better) | Offsides | 1.40 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.67 | Yellow cards | 1.25 (better) |
| 0.50 | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
No previous meetings on record.