Leicester v Bradford

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Model pick: Match result

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Members only

Model pick: Both teams to score

Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.

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Our probabilities against the market

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11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Leicester v Bradford: too close to call

Our model makes Leicester 35% to win this League One fixture, with the draw at 31% and Bradford at 34%. The goal projection is 1.06 for Leicester against 1.03 for Bradford — almost nothing to Leicester on expected output. A combined 2.09 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 35% and both teams to score at 43%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 0-0 13%; 1-0 12%; 0-1 12%; 2-1 7%

This season

Season records for Leicester and Bradford
Leicester		Bradford
13	Played	13
5-4-4	W-D-L	6-4-3
1.46	Pts / game	1.69
1.69	Goals for / game	0.77
1.46	Goals against / game	0.62
69%	Over 2.5	15%
62%	BTTS	15%
31%	Clean sheets	69%
15%	Failed to score	38%
3-1-3	Home record	3-1-2
2-3-1	Away record	3-3-1
D1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Leicester · Bradford

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.3	Shots	13.5
6.2	Shots on target	2.5
7.3	Corners	8.8
1.50	Cards	1.83
13.2	Fouls	16.5
65	Possession %	56
2.12	xG	1.39
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.5	Shots	13.2
4.2	Shots on target	2.7
5.7	Corners	4.7
1.83	Cards	2.33
11.5	Fouls	13.3
36	Possession %	44
1.06	xG	1.24
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Leicester	Metric	Bradford
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.20	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
2.10 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.70
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	4.20
13.20	Total shots	14.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
7.20	Corners	9.00 (better)
67.2 (better)	Possession %	55.8
642 (better)	Passes	357
	Tackles
13.20 (better)	Fouls	16.00
1.00 (better)	Offsides	2.80
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.20 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

No previous meetings on record.

League One table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Huddersfield	14	8	5	1	+16	29	Huddersfield won 4 of the last 5
2	Stockport County	14	8	2	4	+12	26	Stockport County won 3 of the last 5
3	Oxford United	13	7	5	1	+11	26	Oxford United won 3 of the last 5
4	Luton	14	7	3	4	+6	24	Luton won 4 of the last 5
5	Plymouth	14	7	2	5	+2	23	Plymouth won 2 of the last 5
6	Reading	14	6	4	4	+10	22	Reading won 2 of the last 5
7	Bradford	13	6	4	3	+2	22	Bradford won 1 of the last 5
8	Cambridge United	14	5	6	3	0	21	Cambridge United won 1 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Wednesday	13	5	5	3	+8	20	Sheffield Wednesday won 1 of the last 5
10	Leicester	13	5	4	4	+3	19	Leicester won 3 of the last 5
11	Mansfield Town	13	5	4	4	+2	19	Mansfield Town won 2 of the last 5
12	Milton Keynes Dons	13	4	6	3	+2	18	Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of the last 5
13	Wycombe	13	4	6	3	-2	18	Wycombe won 2 of the last 5
14	Leyton Orient	13	5	2	6	+5	17	Leyton Orient won 2 of the last 5
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	-3	17	Burton Albion won 1 of the last 5
16	Stevenage	12	4	4	4	+4	16	Stevenage won 2 of the last 5
17	Notts County	12	3	5	4	-1	14	Notts County won 2 of the last 5
18	AFC Wimbledon	13	3	4	6	-12	13	AFC Wimbledon won 0 of the last 5
19	Blackpool	12	3	3	6	-4	12	Blackpool won 1 of the last 5
20	Doncaster	13	3	3	7	-8	12	Doncaster won 1 of the last 5
21	Wigan	14	3	2	9	-11	11	Wigan won 1 of the last 5
22	Peterborough	13	2	4	7	-12	10	Peterborough won 1 of the last 5
23	Barnsley	12	2	3	7	-10	9	Barnsley won 0 of the last 5
24	Bromley	13	2	3	8	-20	9	Bromley won 0 of the last 5