Sunderland v 
Chelsea
- Over 1.5
- 79%
- Over 2.5
- 55%
- Over 3.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 58%
- Model pick
- Chelsea 47%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.22 – 1.66
Advised bets
Members only
Edge strength 5 of 5Model pick: Asian handicap
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Chelsea favoured against Sunderland
Our model makes Sunderland 27% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 25% and Chelsea at 47%. The goal projection is 1.22 for Sunderland against 1.66 for Chelsea — a clear edge to Chelsea on expected output. A combined 2.88 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-1 9%
- 0-2 8%
- 2-1 7%
This season
| Sunderland | Chelsea | |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Played | 9 |
| 1-2-6 | W-D-L | 5-1-3 |
| 0.56 | Pts / game | 1.78 |
| 0.78 | Goals for / game | 2.11 |
| 1.89 | Goals against / game | 1.67 |
| 33% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 44% | BTTS | 56% |
| 22% | Clean sheets | 22% |
| 44% | Failed to score | 22% |
| 1-1-2 | Home record | 3-1-1 |
| 0-1-4 | Away record | 2-0-2 |
| L1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sunderland · Chelsea
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.8 | Shots | 13.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.6 | Shots on target | 5.8 |
| 4.6 | Corners | 6.4 |
| 1.30 | Cards | 1.65 |
| 9.6 | Fouls | 10.2 |
| 49 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.40 | xG | 1.47 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 16.2 | Shots | 11.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 1.85 | Cards | 3.45 |
| 14.4 | Fouls | 13.4 |
| 51 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.99 | xG | 0.99 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Sunderland | Metric | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 0.80 | Goals scored | 2.00 (better) |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 0.80 (better) |
| 1.35 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.53 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.00 | Shots on target | 6.20 (better) |
| 11.80 | Total shots | 13.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 2.80 | Corners | 5.00 (better) |
| 45.8 | Possession % | 48.2 (better) |
| 355 | Passes | 441 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 8.60 (better) | Fouls | 10.60 |
| 1.40 (better) | Offsides | 2.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.20 |
| 0.25 (better) | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Sunderland wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Chelsea wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Sunderland v Chelsea2–12026-05-24
- Chelsea v Sunderland1–22025-10-25
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | +10 | 27 | Arsenal won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | +8 | 21 | Manchester City won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Brighton | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +17 | 19 | Brighton won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +4 | 16 | Chelsea won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Everton | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 16 | Everton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 15 | Liverpool won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Brentford | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +7 | 14 | Brentford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Leeds | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | +2 | 14 | Leeds won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 | Bournemouth won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Tottenham | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 12 | Tottenham won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 | Newcastle won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 | Aston Villa won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Hull City | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 | Hull City won 0 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Ipswich | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 | Ipswich won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -2 | 10 | Fulham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 9 | Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Coventry | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -9 | 9 | Coventry won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Manchester United | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 | Manchester United won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Crystal Palace | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 | Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 5 | Sunderland won 0 of the last 5 |