Spain
Segunda División predictions
Every Segunda División match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Segunda División page.
16 matches in the next 14 days, 15 of them with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Eibar, 59% against Cadiz at home; the most evenly balanced game is FC Andorra v Mallorca (FC Andorra 36%, draw 27%, Mallorca 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Almeria v FC Andorra, at 3.41.
Every match, one prediction
Tomorrow
Segunda División4Most likely prediction
Mon 9 Nov
Fri 13 Nov
Sat 14 Nov
Sun 15 Nov
Segunda División4Most likely prediction
Mon 16 Nov
Segunda División1Most likely prediction
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Match by match
FC Andorra v MallorcaSun 8 Nov, 13:00
Our model makes FC Andorra 36%, the draw 27% and Mallorca 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.68 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is both teams to score at 55%. FC Andorra are 18th on 11 points from 12; Mallorca are 6th on 22 points from 12. FC Andorra have won one of their last five; Mallorca are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws).
Girona v AlmeriaSun 8 Nov, 15:15
Our model makes Girona 45%, the draw 26% and Almeria 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.76 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is both teams to score at 56%. Girona are 8th on 21 points from 12; Almeria are 2nd on 26 points from 12. Girona have won two of their last five; Almeria are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws).
Sporting Gijon v ValladolidSun 8 Nov, 17:30
Our model makes Sporting Gijon 49%, the draw 26% and Valladolid 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.65 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Sporting Gijon to win at 49%. Sporting Gijon are 7th on 22 points from 12; Valladolid are 13th on 15 points from 12. Sporting Gijon have won four of their last five; Valladolid have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Las Palmas v EldenseSun 8 Nov, 17:30
Our model makes Las Palmas 40%, the draw 27% and Eldense 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.76 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Las Palmas are 12th on 17 points from 12; Eldense are 15th on 14 points from 12. Las Palmas have won two of their last five; Eldense have won three of their last five.
Sabadell v Real Sociedad IIMon 9 Nov, 19:30
Our model makes Sabadell 48%, the draw 28% and Real Sociedad II 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.37 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 58%. Sabadell are 11th on 17 points from 12; Real Sociedad II are 19th on 11 points from 12. Sabadell have won one of their last five; Real Sociedad II have won one of their last five.
Leganes v BurgosFri 13 Nov, 19:30
Our model makes Leganes 24%, the draw 29% and Burgos 47%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (14%), 2.24 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 44%. The headline call is Burgos to win at 47%. Leganes are 17th on 12 points from 13; Burgos are 3rd on 24 points from 13. Leganes are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Burgos have won three of their last five. Burgos have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Valladolid v CastellónSat 14 Nov, 13:00
Our model makes Valladolid 22%, the draw 24% and Castellón 54%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.87 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Castellón to win at 54%. Valladolid are 13th on 15 points from 12; Castellón are 1st on 27 points from 12. Valladolid have won two of their last five; Castellón have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Valladolid wins, draws and Castellón wins.
Real Sociedad II v Sporting GijonSat 14 Nov, 15:15
Our model makes Real Sociedad II 31%, the draw 27% and Sporting Gijon 41%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.63 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Sporting Gijon to win at 41%. Real Sociedad II are 19th on 11 points from 12; Sporting Gijon are 7th on 22 points from 12. Real Sociedad II have won one of their last five; Sporting Gijon have won four of their last five. Sporting Gijon have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Almeria v FC AndorraSat 14 Nov, 17:30
Our model makes Almeria 53%, the draw 22% and FC Andorra 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.41 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 66%. Almeria are 2nd on 26 points from 12; FC Andorra are 18th on 11 points from 12. Almeria are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); FC Andorra have won one of their last five. Almeria have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Mallorca v CordobaSat 14 Nov, 17:30
Our model makes Mallorca 55%, the draw 24% and Cordoba 21%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.86 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Mallorca to win at 55%. Mallorca are 6th on 22 points from 12; Cordoba are 10th on 19 points from 13. Mallorca are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws); Cordoba have won three of their last five.
Oviedo v GironaSat 14 Nov, 20:00
Our model makes Oviedo 29%, the draw 28% and Girona 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.42 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 56%. Oviedo are 9th on 21 points from 13; Girona are 8th on 21 points from 12. Oviedo have won three of their last five; Girona have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Tenerife v AD Ceuta FCSun 15 Nov, 13:00
Our model makes Tenerife 55%, the draw 24% and AD Ceuta FC 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is Tenerife to win at 55%. Tenerife are 14th on 15 points from 12; AD Ceuta FC are 22nd on 5 points from 13. Tenerife are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat); AD Ceuta FC have lost all of their last five.
Granada CF v Las PalmasSun 15 Nov, 15:15
Our model makes Granada CF 50%, the draw 24% and Las Palmas 26%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.00 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 58%. Granada CF are 5th on 23 points from 12; Las Palmas are 12th on 17 points from 12. Granada CF have won all of their last five; Las Palmas have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Eldense v SabadellSun 15 Nov, 17:30
Our model makes Eldense 37%, the draw 30% and Sabadell 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.21 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is under 3.5 goals at 82%. Eldense are 15th on 14 points from 12; Sabadell are 11th on 17 points from 12. Eldense have won three of their last five; Sabadell have won one of their last five.
Eibar v CadizSun 15 Nov, 17:30
Our model makes Eibar 59%, the draw 23% and Cadiz 17%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.78 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Eibar to win at 59%. Eibar are 4th on 23 points from 12; Cadiz are 20th on 10 points from 13. Eibar have won one of their last five; Cadiz have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Eibar wins, draws and Cadiz wins.
The numbers this season
Segunda División has averaged 2.76 goals a game over 136 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 51% of them and both sides scoring in 54%. Home sides have won 46% of matches, 22% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are Segunda División predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Segunda División predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in Segunda División?
- 46% of matches this season, over 136 played, with 22% drawn and 32% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.76 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 51%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.