England
League Two predictions
Every League Two match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the League Two page.
12 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Salford City, 60% against Northampton at home; the most evenly balanced game is Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield (Bristol Rovers 38%, draw 26%, Chesterfield 36%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Rochdale v York, at 3.54.
Every match, one prediction
Sat 14 Nov
League Two12Most likely prediction
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Match by match
Exeter City v CheltenhamSat 14 Nov, 12:30
Our model makes Exeter City 44%, the draw 26% and Cheltenham 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.80 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Exeter City are 12th on 19 points from 14; Cheltenham are 5th on 21 points from 14. Exeter City have won three of their last five; Cheltenham have won two of their last five.
Rotherham v Crawley TownSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Rotherham 38%, the draw 28% and Crawley Town 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Rotherham to win at 38%. Rotherham are 22nd on 12 points from 14; Crawley Town are 24th on 9 points from 12. Rotherham are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Crawley Town have won one of their last five.
Bristol Rovers v ChesterfieldSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Bristol Rovers 38%, the draw 26% and Chesterfield 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.81 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Bristol Rovers are 17th on 16 points from 14; Chesterfield are 10th on 19 points from 14. Bristol Rovers are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Chesterfield have won one of their last five. Chesterfield have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Rochdale v YorkSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Rochdale 32%, the draw 23% and York 46%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.54 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 69%. The headline call is York to win at 46%. Rochdale are 20th on 15 points from 14; York are 7th on 20 points from 14. Rochdale are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); York have won one of their last five.
Walsall v BarnetSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Walsall 36%, the draw 25% and Barnet 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.05 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 59%. Walsall are 3rd on 22 points from 13; Barnet are 2nd on 26 points from 13. Walsall have won two of their last five; Barnet have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Walsall wins, draws and Barnet wins.
Port Vale v Accrington STSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Port Vale 32%, the draw 30% and Accrington ST 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.24 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 3.5 goals at 81%. Port Vale are 19th on 15 points from 12; Accrington ST are 9th on 19 points from 14. Port Vale have won three of their last five; Accrington ST are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws).
Shrewsbury v OldhamSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Shrewsbury 32%, the draw 28% and Oldham 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Oldham to win at 40%. Shrewsbury are 15th on 18 points from 14; Oldham are 18th on 15 points from 14. Shrewsbury have won two of their last five; Oldham have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Swindon Town v GrimsbySat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Swindon Town 32%, the draw 26% and Grimsby 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.84 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is both teams to score at 58%. Swindon Town are 13th on 19 points from 14; Grimsby are 6th on 20 points from 14. Swindon Town have won two of their last five; Grimsby have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Colchester v GillinghamSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Colchester 46%, the draw 27% and Gillingham 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.57 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Colchester to win at 46%. Colchester are 23rd on 12 points from 13; Gillingham are 8th on 20 points from 14. Colchester are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Gillingham have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.
Crewe v Newport CountySat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Crewe 42%, the draw 27% and Newport County 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.59 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Crewe to win at 42%. Crewe are 4th on 22 points from 14; Newport County are 14th on 18 points from 14. Crewe have won two of their last five; Newport County have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Salford City v NorthamptonSat 14 Nov, 15:00
Our model makes Salford City 60%, the draw 25% and Northampton 14%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (16%), 2.31 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 40%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 60%. Salford City are 1st on 31 points from 14; Northampton are 21st on 14 points from 13. Salford City have won all of their last five; Northampton have won two of their last five.
Fleetwood Town v TranmereSat 14 Nov, 17:30
Our model makes Fleetwood Town 51%, the draw 27% and Tranmere 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.50 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is Fleetwood Town to win at 51%. Fleetwood Town are 16th on 17 points from 14; Tranmere are 11th on 19 points from 14. Fleetwood Town have won two of their last five; Tranmere have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
The numbers this season
League Two has averaged 2.68 goals a game over 164 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 47% of them and both sides scoring in 58%. Home sides have won 48% of matches, 33% have been drawn and away sides have won 20%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are League Two predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are League Two predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in League Two?
- 48% of matches this season, over 164 played, with 33% drawn and 20% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.68 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 47%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.