Swindon Town v 
Grimsby
- Over 1.5
- 78%
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- Over 3.5
- 32%
- Both score
- 58%
- Model pick
- Grimsby 42%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.30 – 1.54
Advised bets
Members only
Edge strength 5 of 5Model pick: Asian handicap
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Grimsby favoured against Swindon Town
Our model makes Swindon Town 32% to win this League Two fixture, with the draw at 26% and Grimsby at 42%. The goal projection is 1.30 for Swindon Town against 1.54 for Grimsby — a slight edge to Grimsby on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-1 8%
- 2-1 8%
- 1-0 7%
This season
| Swindon Town | Grimsby | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Played | 14 |
| 5-4-5 | W-D-L | 5-5-4 |
| 1.36 | Pts / game | 1.43 |
| 1.07 | Goals for / game | 1.71 |
| 1.21 | Goals against / game | 1.29 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 57% |
| 50% | BTTS | 57% |
| 14% | Clean sheets | 29% |
| 50% | Failed to score | 21% |
| 4-2-1 | Home record | 4-1-2 |
| 1-2-4 | Away record | 1-4-2 |
| W1 | Streak | W2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Swindon Town · Grimsby
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.4 | Shots | 17.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.6 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 4.6 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 1.14 | Cards | 2.14 |
| 9.1 | Fouls | 10.6 |
| 48 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.41 | xG | 2.34 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 14.7 | Shots | 11.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.0 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 6.6 | Corners | 6.1 |
| 1.00 | Cards | 2.43 |
| 8.0 | Fouls | 13.7 |
| 52 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.78 | xG | 1.66 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Swindon Town | Metric | Grimsby |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 2.20 (better) |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.60 |
| 1.51 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.22 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.40 | Shots on target | 5.80 (better) |
| 12.40 | Total shots | 17.80 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.20 | Corners | 5.60 (better) |
| 48.0 (better) | Possession % | 45.2 |
| 348 (better) | Passes | 323 |
| Tackles | ||
| 8.00 (better) | Fouls | 10.40 |
| 2.00 | Offsides | 1.60 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.40 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.40 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Swindon Town wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Grimsby wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 50%
- Grimsby v Swindon Town4–02026-04-25
- Swindon Town v Grimsby2–22025-11-22
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford City | 14 | 10 | 1 | 3 | +10 | 31 | Salford City won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 26 | Barnet won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | +9 | 22 | Walsall won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 22 | Crewe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 21 | Cheltenham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +6 | 20 | Grimsby won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | York | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +3 | 20 | York won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 20 | Gillingham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Accrington ST | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +6 | 19 | Accrington ST won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +3 | 19 | Chesterfield won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Tranmere | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | +2 | 19 | Tranmere won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Exeter City | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 19 | Exeter City won 3 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Swindon Town | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Swindon Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | +3 | 18 | Newport County won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -5 | 18 | Shrewsbury won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 17 | Fleetwood Town won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol Rovers | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -6 | 16 | Bristol Rovers won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 15 | Oldham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 15 | Port Vale won 3 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 15 | Rochdale won 0 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 14 | Northampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Rotherham | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -7 | 12 | Rotherham won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Colchester | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 12 | Colchester won 0 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 9 | Crawley Town won 1 of the last 5 |