Paris Saint Germain v Estac Troyes

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Paris Saint Germain favoured against Estac Troyes

Our model makes Paris Saint Germain 73% to win this Ligue 1 fixture, with the draw at 16% and Estac Troyes at 11%. The goal projection is 2.61 for Paris Saint Germain against 0.94 for Estac Troyes — a commanding edge to Paris Saint Germain on expected output. A combined 3.55 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 69% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Paris Saint Germain is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 27% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores

2-0 10%

2-1 9%

3-0 9%

3-1 8%

1-1 7%

This season

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Paris Saint Germain · Estac Troyes

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Form comparison

No previous meetings on record.