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Portugal

Primeira Liga predictions

Every Primeira Liga match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Primeira Liga page.

5 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Benfica, 78% against Estrela away; the most evenly balanced game is Santa Clara v GIL Vicente (Santa Clara 40%, draw 30%, GIL Vicente 30%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Estrela v Benfica, at 4.02.

Every match, one prediction

Tomorrow

Primeira Liga5Most likely prediction

Match by match

Estoril v MaritimoSun 8 Nov, 15:30

Our model makes Estoril 43%, the draw 25% and Maritimo 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.06 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Estoril are 18th on 2 points from 10; Maritimo are 14th on 8 points from 10. Estoril have lost all of their last five; Maritimo are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats).

Santa Clara v GIL VicenteSun 8 Nov, 15:30

Our model makes Santa Clara 40%, the draw 30% and GIL Vicente 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.21 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 62%. Santa Clara are 4th on 21 points from 10; GIL Vicente are 7th on 15 points from 10. Santa Clara have won three of their last five; GIL Vicente have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Santa Clara wins, draws and GIL Vicente wins.

Vitória SC v FC PortoSun 8 Nov, 18:00

Our model makes Vitória SC 19%, the draw 27% and FC Porto 55%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (14%), 2.36 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 44%. The headline call is FC Porto to win at 55%. Vitória SC are 13th on 9 points from 10; FC Porto are 1st on 30 points from 10. Vitória SC have won one of their last five; FC Porto have won all of their last five. FC Porto have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Estrela v BenficaSun 8 Nov, 20:30

Our model makes Estrela 9%, the draw 13% and Benfica 78%. The likeliest score is 0-3 (8%), 4.02 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Benfica to win at 78%. Estrela are 12th on 10 points from 10; Benfica are 2nd on 25 points from 10. Estrela are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Benfica have won four of their last five. Benfica have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Rio Ave v SC BragaSun 8 Nov, 20:30

Our model makes Rio Ave 17%, the draw 24% and SC Braga 59%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (12%), 2.69 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is SC Braga to win at 59%. Rio Ave are 16th on 7 points from 10; SC Braga are 8th on 14 points from 10. Rio Ave have won one of their last five; SC Braga have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

The numbers this season

Primeira Liga has averaged 2.66 goals a game over 91 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 54% of them and both sides scoring in 46%. Home sides have won 41% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 38%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these predictions

How are Primeira Liga predictions made?
A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
When are Primeira Liga predictions published?
At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
How often do home teams win in Primeira Liga?
41% of matches this season, over 91 played, with 21% drawn and 38% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.66 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 54%.

The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.

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