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Primeira Liga predictions: matchweek 10 (30 October – 2 November 2026)

Every Primeira Liga match in matchweek 10 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 23 Oct 2026, updated 26 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Primeira Liga, matchweek 10: nine matches, played across 30 October – 2 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Benfica, 75% to beat Alverca at home; the most evenly balanced game is Moreirense v Estrela (Moreirense 34%, draw 26%, Estrela 40%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Benfica v Alverca, at 3.45; the tightest looks GIL Vicente v Vitória SC, at 2.28.

Going into the round, FC Porto lead on 27 points, eight points clear of Benfica, with Sporting CP third on 18. The bottom three are Casa Pia (7), Rio Ave (7), Estoril (2).

The numbers this season

Primeira Liga has averaged 2.74 goals a game over 80 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 55% of them and both sides scoring in 49%. Home sides have won 38% of matches, 23% have been drawn and away sides have won 40%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Casa Pia v Sporting CPFri 30 Oct, 20:15

Our model makes Casa Pia 10%, the draw 18% and Sporting CP 71%. The likeliest score is 0-2 (13%), 2.98 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is Sporting CP to win at 71%. Casa Pia are 16th on 7 points from 9; Sporting CP are 3rd on 18 points from 9. Casa Pia have won two of their last five; Sporting CP have won two of their last five. Sporting CP have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Moreirense v EstrelaSat 31 Oct, 15:30

Our model makes Moreirense 34%, the draw 26% and Estrela 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Moreirense are 10th on 11 points from 9; Estrela are 12th on 10 points from 9. Moreirense have won two of their last five; Estrela have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

FC Porto v EstorilSat 31 Oct, 20:30

Our model makes FC Porto 68%, the draw 20% and Estoril 12%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (13%), 2.85 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is FC Porto to win at 68%. FC Porto are 1st on 27 points from 9; Estoril are 18th on 2 points from 9. FC Porto have won all of their last five; Estoril are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats). FC Porto have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Arouca v NacionalSun 1 Nov, 15:30

Our model makes Arouca 54%, the draw 24% and Nacional 22%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.97 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is Arouca to win at 54%. Arouca are 5th on 17 points from 9; Nacional are 15th on 7 points from 9. Arouca have won two of their last five; Nacional have won one of their last five. Arouca have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Academico Viseu v Rio AveSun 1 Nov, 18:00

Our model makes Academico Viseu 54%, the draw 25% and Rio Ave 21%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.66 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Academico Viseu to win at 54%. Academico Viseu are 6th on 17 points from 9; Rio Ave are 17th on 7 points from 9. Academico Viseu have won all of their last five; Rio Ave have won one of their last five.

Maritimo v Santa ClaraSun 1 Nov, 18:00

Our model makes Maritimo 25%, the draw 26% and Santa Clara 49%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.69 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Santa Clara to win at 49%. Maritimo are 14th on 8 points from 9; Santa Clara are 4th on 18 points from 8. Maritimo are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Santa Clara are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws).

SC Braga v FamalicaoSun 1 Nov, 20:30

Our model makes SC Braga 48%, the draw 28% and Famalicao 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.33 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 59%. SC Braga are 9th on 11 points from 9; Famalicao are 11th on 10 points from 9. SC Braga have won one of their last five; Famalicao have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Benfica v AlvercaMon 2 Nov, 20:15

Our model makes Benfica 75%, the draw 16% and Alverca 9%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (11%), 3.45 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Benfica to win at 75%. Benfica are 2nd on 19 points from 8; Alverca are 8th on 11 points from 9. Benfica have won four of their last five; Alverca have won three of their last five. Benfica have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

GIL Vicente v Vitória SCMon 2 Nov, 20:15

Our model makes GIL Vicente 40%, the draw 30% and Vitória SC 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.28 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is under 3.5 goals at 80%. GIL Vicente are 7th on 14 points from 9; Vitória SC are 13th on 8 points from 9. GIL Vicente have won two of their last five; Vitória SC have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.