Moreirense v Estrela

9th2–112th

15:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Moreirense		Estrela
11	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	1
3	Corners	3
10	Fouls	15
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	3
424	Passes	386
52%	Possession %	48%
0.52	xG	0.74

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 33%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Estrela 40%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.38 – 1.51

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.2%	1.49	1.28 Betano	78.1%	-10.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.9%	1.70	1.85 Betano	54.1%	+4.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.1%	2.43	2.05 Betano	48.8%	-7.6
Match result	Moreirense	34.2%	2.92	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+0.9
Match result	Draw	25.9%	3.85	3.45 Betano	29.0%	-3.0
Match result	Estrela	39.8%	2.51	2.55 Betano	39.2%	+0.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.9%	1.27	1.38 Betano	72.5%	+6.5
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.1%	4.75	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-7.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	55.1%	1.81	2.12 Betano	47.2%	+8.0
Total goals	Under 2.5	44.9%	2.23	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	-9.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.8%	3.05	3.80 BetVictor	26.3%	+6.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Moreirense v Estrela: too close to call

Our model makes Moreirense 34% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Estrela at 40%. The goal projection is 1.38 for Moreirense against 1.51 for Estrela — a slight edge to Estrela on expected output. A combined 2.89 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 8%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Moreirense and Estrela
Moreirense		Estrela
10	Played	10
4-2-4	W-D-L	2-4-4
1.40	Pts / game	1.00
1.30	Goals for / game	1.50
1.70	Goals against / game	1.90
70%	Over 2.5	70%
60%	BTTS	70%
10%	Clean sheets	0%
30%	Failed to score	30%
2-1-2	Home record	1-2-2
2-1-2	Away record	1-2-2
W2	Streak	L4

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Moreirense · Estrela

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.8	Shots	14.0
3.3	Shots on target	2.8
2.5	Corners	5.3
1.33	Cards	1.50
12.0	Fouls	11.3
42	Possession %	58
0.89	xG	1.31
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.5	Shots	9.0
4.0	Shots on target	3.8
3.8	Corners	3.8
2.67	Cards	2.50
14.0	Fouls	11.0
58	Possession %	42
1.35	xG	0.70
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Moreirense	Metric	Estrela
0.80	Goals scored	1.40 (better)
1.60	Goals conceded	1.60
1.00	Expected goals (xG)	1.18 (better)
	Big chances
2.75	Shots on target	3.75 (better)
9.50	Total shots	14.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.50	Corners	5.25 (better)
34.0	Possession %	55.3 (better)
313	Passes	466 (better)
	Tackles
14.00	Fouls	10.25 (better)
0.00 (better)	Offsides	1.67
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.25
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Moreirense wins: 2
Draws: 1
Estrela wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Moreirense v Estrela2–12026-10-31
Moreirense v Estrela3–22026-05-02
Estrela v Moreirense0–02025-12-20

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+19	25	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	+12	21	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	+9	21	Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5	Arouca	11	6	2	3	+5	20	Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	+3	20	Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	10	4	3	3	+1	15	GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8	SC Braga	10	4	2	4	+1	14	SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	-4	14	Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	+1	13	Famalicao won 3 of the last 5
11	Alverca	10	3	2	5	-1	11	Alverca won 3 of the last 5
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Vitória SC	10	2	3	5	0	9	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	-9	7	Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5