Academico Viseu v Rio Ave

6th2–116th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Academico Viseu		Rio Ave
13	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	5
5	Corners	6
8	Fouls	12
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	1
1	Offsides	3
428	Passes	530
45%	Possession %	55%
0.94	xG	1.14

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Academico Viseu 54%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.70 – 0.97

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Academico Viseu	53.9%	1.85	1.91 Betfair	52.4%	+1.6
Match result	Draw	25.2%	3.97	3.80 Bet365	26.3%	-1.1
Match result	Rio Ave	20.9%	4.79	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+0.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.0%	1.33	1.31 Betano	76.3%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.0%	4.00	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	-2.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.7%	2.01	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-1.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.3%	1.99	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-1.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.8%	3.60	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-1.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.2%	1.39	1.35 Betano	74.1%	-1.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.2%	1.95	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-4.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.8%	2.05	2.05 Betano	48.8%	+0.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Academico Viseu favoured against Rio Ave

Our model makes Academico Viseu 54% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 25% and Rio Ave at 21%. The goal projection is 1.70 for Academico Viseu against 0.97 for Rio Ave — a substantial edge to Academico Viseu on expected output. A combined 2.66 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 11%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Academico Viseu and Rio Ave
Academico Viseu		Rio Ave
10	Played	10
6-2-2	W-D-L	2-1-7
2.00	Pts / game	0.70
1.50	Goals for / game	0.90
1.20	Goals against / game	2.30
70%	Over 2.5	60%
60%	BTTS	30%
20%	Clean sheets	10%
20%	Failed to score	60%
3-0-2	Home record	1-1-3
3-2-0	Away record	1-0-4
W6	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Academico Viseu · Rio Ave

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.3	Shots	10.0
4.5	Shots on target	4.7
2.5	Corners	6.0
2.75	Cards	3.00
13.0	Fouls	13.3
42	Possession %	56
0.87	xG	1.18
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.8	Shots	12.3
5.0	Shots on target	5.0
6.8	Corners	5.0
2.00	Cards	0.33
11.3	Fouls	13.3
59	Possession %	44
1.54	xG	1.31
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Academico Viseu	Metric	Rio Ave
1.40	Goals scored	1.40
0.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.00
1.36 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.87
	Big chances
3.75	Shots on target	4.75 (better)
9.75 (better)	Total shots	8.25
	Touches in opp. box
2.50	Corners	4.25 (better)
44.3	Possession %	47.0 (better)
373 (better)	Passes	372
	Tackles
15.50	Fouls	10.00 (better)
1.67	Offsides	0.33 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	1.75 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Academico Viseu wins: 1
Draws: 0
Rio Ave wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Academico Viseu v Rio Ave2–12026-11-01

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+19	25	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	+12	21	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	+9	21	Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5	Arouca	11	6	2	3	+5	20	Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	+3	20	Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	10	4	3	3	+1	15	GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8	SC Braga	10	4	2	4	+1	14	SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	-4	14	Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	+1	13	Famalicao won 3 of the last 5
11	Alverca	10	3	2	5	-1	11	Alverca won 3 of the last 5
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Vitória SC	10	2	3	5	0	9	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	-9	7	Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5