Primeira Liga · Review

Primeira Liga matchweek 10 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Primeira Liga result from matchweek 10 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 3 Nov 2026, updated 3 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Primeira Liga, matchweek 10 (30 October – 2 November 2026), is complete: nine matches, 19 goals (2.11 a game), six home wins, one draw and two away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in four of the nine and both teams scored in two.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in GIL Vicente v Vitória SC (0–0), which it had at 30%; the one it rated most likely was Benfica's win in Benfica v Alverca (1–0), at 75%.

After the round, FC Porto lead on 30 points, five points clear of Benfica, with Sporting CP third on 21. The bottom three are Rio Ave (7), Casa Pia (7), Estoril (2).

Match by match

Casa Pia 0–2 Sporting CPFri 30 Oct, 20:15

Before kick-off the model had Casa Pia 10%, the draw 18% and Sporting CP 71%, so Sporting CP winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 0-2, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.39–2.71: Sporting CP created the better chances. The headline call, Sporting CP to win at 71%, came in. Pick published: Under 2.5 at 2.60 — won.

Moreirense 2–1 EstrelaSat 31 Oct, 15:30

Before kick-off the model had Moreirense 34%, the draw 26% and Estrela 40%, with Estrela favoured; it put Moreirense winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.52–0.74: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, came in.

FC Porto 4–0 EstorilSat 31 Oct, 20:30

Before kick-off the model had FC Porto 68%, the draw 20% and Estoril 12%, so FC Porto winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 3.13–0.64: FC Porto created the better chances. The headline call, FC Porto to win at 68%, came in.

Arouca 1–0 NacionalSun 1 Nov, 15:30

Before kick-off the model had Arouca 54%, the draw 24% and Nacional 22%, so Arouca winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.74–0.34: Arouca created the better chances. The headline call, Arouca to win at 54%, came in.

Academico Viseu 2–1 Rio AveSun 1 Nov, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Academico Viseu 54%, the draw 25% and Rio Ave 21%, so Academico Viseu winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.94–1.14: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Academico Viseu to win at 54%, came in.

Maritimo 0–2 Santa ClaraSun 1 Nov, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Maritimo 25%, the draw 26% and Santa Clara 49%, so Santa Clara winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.10–0.84: Maritimo created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Santa Clara to win at 49%, came in.

SC Braga 3–0 FamalicaoSun 1 Nov, 20:30

Before kick-off the model had SC Braga 48%, the draw 28% and Famalicao 24%, so SC Braga winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.19–0.19: SC Braga created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 59%, did not come in. Pick published: SC Braga -0.75 at 1.79 — won.

Benfica 1–0 AlvercaMon 2 Nov, 20:15

Before kick-off the model had Benfica 75%, the draw 16% and Alverca 9%, so Benfica winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 1.68–0.62: Benfica created the better chances. The headline call, Benfica to win at 75%, came in.

GIL Vicente 0–0 Vitória SCMon 2 Nov, 20:15

Before kick-off the model had GIL Vicente 40%, the draw 30% and Vitória SC 31%, with GIL Vicente favoured; it put the draw at 30%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.73–0.48: an even contest on chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 60%, came in. Pick published: GIL Vicente -0.25 at 2.23 — half lost.

The numbers this season

Primeira Liga has averaged 2.68 goals a game over 90 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 54% of them and both sides scoring in 47%. Home sides have won 40% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 39%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.