FC Porto v Estoril

1st4–018th

20:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
FC Porto		Estoril
24	Shots	7
11	Shots on target	0
8	Corners	0
13	Fouls	7
1	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	1
581	Passes	316
66%	Possession %	34%
3.13	xG	0.64

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: FC Porto 68%
Likely score: 2-0 13%
Expected goals: 2.10 – 0.75

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	FC Porto	68.2%	1.47	1.22 William Hill	82.0%	-13.8
Match result	Draw	20.1%	4.97	7.60 Dafabet	13.2%	+7.0
Match result	Estoril	11.7%	8.53	18.00 Betfair	5.6%	+6.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.1%	1.28	1.18 Betano	84.7%	-6.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.9%	4.57	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	+5.2
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.2%	1.85	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-8.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.8%	2.18	2.75 Betano	36.4%	+9.5
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.9%	3.14	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	-4.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.1%	1.47	1.67 Betfair	59.9%	+8.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.7%	2.14	2.55 Betano	39.2%	+7.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.3%	1.88	2.00 William Hill	50.0%	+3.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Porto favoured against Estoril

Our model makes FC Porto 68% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 20% and Estoril at 12%. The goal projection is 2.10 for FC Porto against 0.75 for Estoril — a commanding edge to FC Porto on expected output. A combined 2.85 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. FC Porto is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 32% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 13%; 1-0 12%; 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 3-0 9%

This season

Season records for FC Porto and Estoril
FC Porto		Estoril
10	Played	10
10-0-0	W-D-L	0-2-8
3.00	Pts / game	0.20
2.50	Goals for / game	0.50
0.40	Goals against / game	1.90
60%	Over 2.5	50%
40%	BTTS	50%
60%	Clean sheets	10%
0%	Failed to score	50%
5-0-0	Home record	0-2-3
5-0-0	Away record	0-0-5
W10	Streak	L5

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. FC Porto · Estoril

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.8	Shots	15.5
7.8	Shots on target	5.5
6.3	Corners	4.5
1.75	Cards	1.75
15.5	Fouls	10.0
57	Possession %	48
1.94	xG	1.27
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.0	Shots	15.8
2.3	Shots on target	6.0
2.0	Corners	4.5
2.00	Cards	1.75
12.8	Fouls	15.3
43	Possession %	52
0.54	xG	1.88
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
FC Porto	Metric	Estoril
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
1.40	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.49 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.98
	Big chances
6.00	Shots on target	6.00
16.00 (better)	Total shots	14.75
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	5.50 (better)
46.8	Possession %	47.8 (better)
393	Passes	430 (better)
	Tackles
13.50	Fouls	10.00 (better)
3.00	Offsides	0.25 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

FC Porto wins: 3
Draws: 0
Estoril wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

FC Porto v Estoril4–02026-10-31
Estoril v FC Porto1–32026-04-12
FC Porto v Estoril1–02025-11-30

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+19	25	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	+12	21	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	+9	21	Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5	Arouca	11	6	2	3	+5	20	Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	+3	20	Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	10	4	3	3	+1	15	GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8	SC Braga	10	4	2	4	+1	14	SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	-4	14	Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	+1	13	Famalicao won 3 of the last 5
11	Alverca	10	3	2	5	-1	11	Alverca won 3 of the last 5
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Vitória SC	10	2	3	5	0	9	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	-9	7	Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5