Primeira Liga · Review

Primeira Liga matchweek 9 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Primeira Liga result from matchweek 9 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 26 Oct 2026, updated 27 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Primeira Liga, matchweek 9 (23–26 October 2026), is complete: nine matches, 24 goals (2.67 a game), two home wins, no draws and seven away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in five of the nine and both teams scored in three.

The result the model rated least likely was Academico Viseu's win in Sporting CP v Academico Viseu (1–2), which it had at 15%; the one it rated most likely was Benfica's win in Santa Clara v Benfica (1–2), at 59%.

After the round, FC Porto lead on 27 points, five points clear of Benfica, with Sporting CP third on 18. The bottom three are Casa Pia (7), Rio Ave (7), Estoril (2).

Match by match

Vitória SC 5–0 MaritimoFri 23 Oct, 20:45

Before kick-off the model had Vitória SC 40%, the draw 28% and Maritimo 32%, so Vitória SC winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.82–0.54: Vitória SC created the better chances. The headline call, Vitória SC to win at 40%, came in.

Estrela 0–2 Casa PiaSat 24 Oct, 15:30

Before kick-off the model had Estrela 48%, the draw 26% and Casa Pia 26%, with Estrela favoured; it put Casa Pia winning at 26%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.72–0.81: Estrela created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Estrela to win at 48%, did not come in.

Alverca 0–1 AroucaSat 24 Oct, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Alverca 36%, the draw 26% and Arouca 38%, so Arouca winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.43–2.06: Arouca created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 58%, did not come in.

GIL Vicente 0–1 FC PortoSat 24 Oct, 20:30

Before kick-off the model had GIL Vicente 19%, the draw 27% and FC Porto 54%, so FC Porto winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score, 0-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 0.43–1.13: FC Porto created the better chances. The headline call, FC Porto to win at 54%, came in.

Estoril 1–3 MoreirenseSun 25 Oct, 15:30

Before kick-off the model had Estoril 44%, the draw 27% and Moreirense 29%, with Estoril favoured; it put Moreirense winning at 29%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.09–1.39: Estoril created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Estoril to win at 44%, did not come in.

Nacional 1–0 SC BragaSun 25 Oct, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Nacional 20%, the draw 25% and SC Braga 55%, with SC Braga favoured; it put Nacional winning at 20%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.52–1.69: SC Braga created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, SC Braga to win at 55%, did not come in.

Rio Ave 0–4 FamalicaoSun 25 Oct, 18:00

Before kick-off the model had Rio Ave 25%, the draw 27% and Famalicao 48%, so Famalicao winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.66–1.71: Famalicao created the better chances. The headline call, Famalicao to win at 48%, came in. Pick published: Rio Ave -0.25 at 3.45 — lost.

Sporting CP 1–2 Academico ViseuSun 25 Oct, 20:30

Before kick-off the model had Sporting CP 64%, the draw 21% and Academico Viseu 15%, with Sporting CP favoured; it put Academico Viseu winning at 15%. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 2.06–0.86: Sporting CP created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Sporting CP to win at 64%, did not come in.

Santa Clara 1–2 BenficaMon 26 Oct, 18:45

Before kick-off the model had Santa Clara 18%, the draw 23% and Benfica 59%, so Benfica winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.60–1.83: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Benfica to win at 59%, came in. Pick published: Benfica +0.25 at 1.26 — won.

The numbers this season

Primeira Liga has averaged 2.74 goals a game over 81 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 56% of them and both sides scoring in 49%. Home sides have won 37% of matches, 22% have been drawn and away sides have won 41%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.