Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5WLWDD3rd1–2Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5WWWWW6th
Match statistics
Full-time statistics
Sporting CP
Academico Viseu
28
Shots
9
4
Shots on target
3
11
Corners
0
14
Fouls
9
2
Yellow cards
4
0
Red cards
0
2
Offsides
2
596
Passes
251
71%
Possession %
29%
2.06
xG
0.86
64%
21%
15%
1 · Sporting CPXAcademico Viseu · 2
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
36%
Both score
54%
Model pick
Sporting CP 64%
Likely score
2-0 11%
Expected goals
2.11 – 0.94
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market
Selection
Ours
Fair
Best price
Implied
Gap
Total goals
Under 1.5
18.8%
5.33
7.50 Betfair
13.3%
+5.4
Total goals
Over 2.5
58.7%
1.70
1.53 Bet365
65.4%
-6.7
Total goals
Under 2.5
41.3%
2.42
3.25 Betfair
30.8%
+10.5
Total goals
Over 3.5
36.3%
2.75
2.25 Bet365
44.4%
-8.1
Total goals
Under 3.5
63.7%
1.57
1.91 Betano
52.4%
+11.3
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — Yes
54.0%
1.85
2.05 Bet365
48.8%
+5.2
Both teams to score
Both teams to score — No
46.0%
2.17
2.05 William Hill
48.8%
-2.8
Match result
Sporting CP
63.7%
1.57
1.26 Betano
79.4%
-15.7
Match result
Draw
20.9%
4.78
7.50 Betfair
13.3%
+7.6
Match result
Academico Viseu
15.4%
6.51
15.00 William Hill
6.7%
+8.7
Total goals
Over 1.5
81.2%
1.23
1.12 Bet365
89.3%
-8.1
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Sporting CP favoured against Academico Viseu
Our model makes Sporting CP 64% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 21% and Academico Viseu at 15%. The goal projection is 2.11 for Sporting CP against 0.94 for Academico Viseu — a commanding edge to Sporting CP on expected output. A combined 3.05 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Sporting CP is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 36% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
Most likely scores
2-0 11%
2-1 10%
1-1 10%
1-0 10%
3-0 7%
This season
Season records for Sporting CP and Academico Viseu
Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sporting CP
Metric
Academico Viseu
2.20 (better)
Goals scored
1.40
1.00
Goals conceded
1.00
1.59 (better)
Expected goals (xG)
1.25
—
Big chances *
—
4.20 (better)
Shots on target
3.20
10.80 (better)
Total shots
9.60
—
Touches in opp. box *
—
2.80 (better)
Corners
2.20
51.0 (better)
Possession %
46.8
475 (better)
Passes
400
—
Tackles
—
11.00 (better)
Fouls
15.00
1.60
Offsides
1.25 (better)
—
Throw-ins *
—
2.20 (better)
Yellow cards
3.00
0.50
Red cards
0.00 (better)
* Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
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Sporting CP v 
Academico Viseu