Estoril v Moreirense

18th1–38th

15:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Estoril		Moreirense
26	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	4
6	Corners	3
17	Fouls	13
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
478	Passes	367
57%	Possession %	43%
2.09	xG	1.39

Over 1.5: 74%
Over 2.5: 48%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Estoril 44%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.46 – 1.15

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Estoril	43.8%	2.29	2.01 Dafabet	49.8%	-6.0
Match result	Draw	27.2%	3.68	3.80 Dafabet	26.3%	+0.9
Match result	Moreirense	29.1%	3.44	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	+6.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.1%	1.35	1.32 Betano	75.8%	-1.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.9%	3.86	3.80 BetVictor	26.3%	-0.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	48.4%	2.07	1.98 Betano	50.5%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	51.6%	1.94	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+0.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	26.6%	3.76	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	-2.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	73.4%	1.36	1.34 Betano	74.6%	-1.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.1%	1.89	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-0.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.9%	2.13	2.05 BetVictor	48.8%	-1.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Estoril favoured against Moreirense

Our model makes Estoril 44% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 27% and Moreirense at 29%. The goal projection is 1.46 for Estoril against 1.15 for Moreirense — a clear edge to Estoril on expected output. A combined 2.61 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 0-0 8%; 2-0 8%

This season

Season records for Estoril and Moreirense
Estoril		Moreirense
10	Played	10
0-2-8	W-D-L	4-2-4
0.20	Pts / game	1.40
0.50	Goals for / game	1.30
1.90	Goals against / game	1.70
50%	Over 2.5	70%
50%	BTTS	60%
10%	Clean sheets	10%
50%	Failed to score	30%
0-2-3	Home record	2-1-2
0-0-5	Away record	2-1-2
L5	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Estoril · Moreirense

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.3	Shots	10.7
7.3	Shots on target	3.0
6.0	Corners	2.3
2.33	Cards	2.00
11.0	Fouls	12.7
53	Possession %	38
1.49	xG	1.02
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.0	Shots	18.3
4.3	Shots on target	5.0
3.3	Corners	4.0
2.00	Cards	3.50
16.0	Fouls	13.7
47	Possession %	62
1.46	xG	1.56
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Estoril	Metric	Moreirense
0.60	Goals scored	0.80 (better)
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.60
0.86	Expected goals (xG)	1.00 (better)
	Big chances
5.20 (better)	Shots on target	2.75
12.60 (better)	Total shots	9.50
	Touches in opp. box
4.40 (better)	Corners	2.50
45.0 (better)	Possession %	34.0
409 (better)	Passes	312
	Tackles
10.40 (better)	Fouls	14.00
0.20	Offsides	0.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Estoril wins: 0
Draws: 1
Moreirense wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Estoril v Moreirense1–32026-10-25
Moreirense v Estoril1–02026-04-20
Estoril v Moreirense3–32025-12-07

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+18	22	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	+12	21	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	9	5	3	1	+7	18	Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	+5	17	Arouca won 2 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	9	5	2	2	+2	17	Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	9	4	2	3	+1	14	GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	-4	14	Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
9	Alverca	9	3	2	4	0	11	Alverca won 3 of the last 5
10	SC Braga	9	3	2	4	-2	11	SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
11	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	+3	10	Famalicao won 2 of the last 5
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Vitória SC	9	2	2	5	0	8	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-10	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15	Nacional	9	2	1	6	-8	7	Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16	Rio Ave	9	2	1	6	-13	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5