Estrela v Casa Pia

12th0–217th

14:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Estrela		Casa Pia
18	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	4
7	Corners	5
13	Fouls	13
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
—	Offsides	—
506	Passes	304
63%	Possession %	37%
1.72	xG	0.81

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 56%

Model pick: Estrela 48%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.64 – 1.15

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Estrela	48.2%	2.08	1.82 Dafabet	54.9%	-6.8
Match result	Draw	25.6%	3.90	3.85 Betano	26.0%	-0.3
Match result	Casa Pia	26.2%	3.82	5.00 Betano	20.0%	+6.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.3%	1.29	1.33 Betano	75.2%	+2.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.7%	4.41	3.55 Betano	28.2%	-5.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.8%	1.89	2.00 Betano	50.0%	+2.8
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.2%	2.12	1.93 Betano	51.8%	-4.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.6%	3.27	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+1.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.4%	1.44	1.36 Betano	73.5%	-4.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.7%	1.80	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	+3.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.3%	2.26	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-7.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Estrela favoured against Casa Pia

Our model makes Estrela 48% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Casa Pia at 26%. The goal projection is 1.64 for Estrela against 1.15 for Casa Pia — a clear edge to Estrela on expected output. A combined 2.79 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 8%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Estrela and Casa Pia
Estrela		Casa Pia
10	Played	10
2-4-4	W-D-L	2-1-7
1.00	Pts / game	0.70
1.50	Goals for / game	0.50
1.90	Goals against / game	1.90
70%	Over 2.5	30%
70%	BTTS	20%
0%	Clean sheets	20%
30%	Failed to score	70%
1-2-2	Home record	0-0-5
1-2-2	Away record	2-1-2
L4	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Estrela · Casa Pia

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	9.5
2.8	Shots on target	2.8
5.3	Corners	3.8
1.50	Cards	2.58
11.3	Fouls	13.0
58	Possession %	42
1.31	xG	0.97
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.0	Shots	17.3
3.8	Shots on target	6.3
3.8	Corners	6.3
2.50	Cards	2.75
11.0	Fouls	12.0
42	Possession %	58
0.70	xG	1.51
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Estrela	Metric	Casa Pia
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
1.80	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.13 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.03
	Big chances
3.80 (better)	Shots on target	3.00
14.00 (better)	Total shots	10.40
	Touches in opp. box
5.20 (better)	Corners	4.20
52.4 (better)	Possession %	42.4
432 (better)	Passes	307
	Tackles
10.40 (better)	Fouls	12.20
1.67	Offsides	1.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.40	Yellow cards	2.40
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Estrela wins: 2
Draws: 0
Casa Pia wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Estrela v Casa Pia0–22026-10-24
Estrela v Casa Pia4–02026-03-20
Casa Pia v Estrela3–52025-11-01

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+19	25	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	+12	21	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	+9	21	Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5	Arouca	10	6	2	2	+6	20	Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	+3	20	Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	10	4	3	3	+1	15	GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8	SC Braga	10	4	2	4	+1	14	SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	-4	14	Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
10	Alverca	10	3	2	5	-1	11	Alverca won 3 of the last 5
11	Famalicao	10	2	4	4	0	10	Famalicao won 2 of the last 5
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Vitória SC	10	2	3	5	0	9	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	-9	7	Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5