Santa Clara v 
Benfica
Match statistics
| Santa Clara | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
| 0 | Offsides | 3 |
| 306 | Passes | 483 |
| 38% | Possession % | 62% |
| 1.60 | xG | 1.83 |
- Over 1.5
- 78%
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- Over 3.5
- 32%
- Both score
- 53%
- Model pick
- Benfica 59%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 0.96 – 1.90
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Benfica +0.25
Why this price?
Back Benfica +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.26 with Bet365 — Benfica starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 80% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 84%; we judge it at 82%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.22. The offered 1.26 implies only 79%, so the price is 3.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Santa Clara 0.96, Benfica 1.90.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Santa Clara | 18.0% | 5.56 | 12.00 Bet365 | 8.3% | +9.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 23.0% | 4.34 | 5.60 Dafabet | 17.9% | +5.2 |
| Match result | Benfica | 59.0% | 1.70 | 1.40 Dafabet | 71.4% | -12.5 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 78.4% | 1.27 | 1.25 Bet365 | 80.0% | -1.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 21.6% | 4.63 | 5.00 Betfair | 20.0% | +1.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 54.5% | 1.84 | 1.85 Bet365 | 54.1% | +0.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 45.5% | 2.20 | 2.32 Betano | 43.1% | +2.4 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 32.1% | 3.11 | 3.25 Bet365 | 30.8% | +1.4 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 67.8% | 1.47 | 1.53 Betano | 65.4% | +2.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 52.9% | 1.89 | 2.22 Betano | 45.0% | +7.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 47.1% | 2.13 | 1.80 Betano | 55.6% | -8.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Benfica favoured against Santa Clara
Our model makes Santa Clara 18% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 23% and Benfica at 59%. The goal projection is 0.96 for Santa Clara against 1.90 for Benfica — a commanding edge to Benfica on expected output. A combined 2.86 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 0-1 10%
- 0-2 10%
- 1-2 10%
- 0-3 7%
This season
| Santa Clara | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 6-3-1 | W-D-L | 8-1-1 |
| 2.10 | Pts / game | 2.50 |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game | 2.70 |
| 0.60 | Goals against / game | 0.80 |
| 40% | Over 2.5 | 80% |
| 40% | BTTS | 50% |
| 60% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 10% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 2-2-1 | Home record | 4-1-0 |
| 4-1-0 | Away record | 4-0-1 |
| W1 | Streak | W3 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Santa Clara · Benfica
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.0 | Shots | 16.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 6.3 |
| 4.00 | Cards | 3.75 |
| 15.3 | Fouls | 11.3 |
| 49 | Possession % | 61 |
| 1.04 | xG | 1.80 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 11.5 | Shots | 12.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 4.17 | Cards | 3.75 |
| 15.0 | Fouls | 18.0 |
| 51 | Possession % | 39 |
| 1.23 | xG | 1.00 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Santa Clara | Metric | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Goals scored | 2.40 (better) |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.00 |
| 1.15 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.07 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.50 | Shots on target | 4.80 (better) |
| 13.00 | Total shots | 17.80 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.50 | Corners | 7.40 (better) |
| 51.0 | Possession % | 54.8 (better) |
| 436 | Passes | 498 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.50 | Fouls | 10.60 (better) |
| 2.00 | Offsides | 1.25 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.25 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.40 |
| 0.25 | Red cards | 0.25 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Santa Clara wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Benfica wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.67
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 100%
- Santa Clara v Benfica1–22026-10-26
- Santa Clara v Benfica1–22026-02-13
- Benfica v Santa Clara1–12025-09-12
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | +21 | 30 | FC Porto won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Benfica | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +19 | 25 | Benfica won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 21 | Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +9 | 21 | Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +5 | 20 | Arouca won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 20 | Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 | GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 14 | SC Braga won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 | Moreirense won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Famalicao | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 13 | Famalicao won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Alverca | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 | Alverca won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Estrela | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 | Estrela won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9 | Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 | Maritimo won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 7 | Nacional won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 | Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 | Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -14 | 2 | Estoril won 0 of the last 5 |