Vitória SC v Maritimo

13th5–014th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Vitória SC		Maritimo
16	Shots	10
8	Shots on target	2
6	Corners	5
15	Fouls	11
4	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	6
443	Passes	324
58%	Possession %	42%
1.82	xG	0.54

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 47%
Over 3.5: 25%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Vitória SC 40%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.35 – 1.19

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Vitória SC	39.8%	2.51	1.63 Dafabet	61.3%	-21.6
Match result	Draw	27.9%	3.58	4.30 Betano	23.3%	+4.6
Match result	Maritimo	32.3%	3.09	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	+16.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	72.8%	1.37	1.33 Betano	75.2%	-2.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	27.2%	3.68	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	+0.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	46.7%	2.14	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-3.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	53.3%	1.88	1.98 Betano	50.5%	+2.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.2%	3.97	3.50 BetVictor	28.6%	-3.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.8%	1.34	1.38 Betano	72.5%	+2.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.3%	1.91	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+1.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.7%	2.10	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-4.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Vitória SC favoured against Maritimo

Our model makes Vitória SC 40% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 28% and Maritimo at 32%. The goal projection is 1.35 for Vitória SC against 1.19 for Maritimo — a slight edge to Vitória SC on expected output. A combined 2.54 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 0-1 9%; 2-1 9%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Vitória SC and Maritimo
Vitória SC		Maritimo
10	Played	10
2-3-5	W-D-L	2-2-6
0.90	Pts / game	0.80
1.00	Goals for / game	0.90
1.00	Goals against / game	2.10
30%	Over 2.5	70%
30%	BTTS	60%
40%	Clean sheets	10%
50%	Failed to score	30%
2-2-1	Home record	1-1-3
0-1-4	Away record	1-1-3
D1	Streak	L3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Vitória SC · Maritimo

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.8	Shots	11.3
3.8	Shots on target	4.0
4.5	Corners	4.0
3.33	Cards	2.33
17.3	Fouls	14.3
54	Possession %	45
0.96	xG	0.97
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.5	Shots	15.3
2.8	Shots on target	7.3
4.5	Corners	4.7
2.33	Cards	3.00
12.5	Fouls	16.0
47	Possession %	55
1.16	xG	1.62
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Vitória SC	Metric	Maritimo
0.60	Goals scored	0.80 (better)
1.00 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
1.52 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.52
	Big chances
5.00 (better)	Shots on target	2.80
18.75 (better)	Total shots	8.80
	Touches in opp. box
8.50 (better)	Corners	3.20
58.0 (better)	Possession %	46.6
485 (better)	Passes	393
	Tackles
15.00 (better)	Fouls	15.20
1.50	Offsides	0.33 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.50	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Vitória SC wins: 1
Draws: 0
Maritimo wins: 0
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Vitória SC v Maritimo5–02026-10-23

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+19	25	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	+12	21	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	+9	21	Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5	Arouca	11	6	2	3	+5	20	Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	+3	20	Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	10	4	3	3	+1	15	GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8	SC Braga	10	4	2	4	+1	14	SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	-4	14	Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	+1	13	Famalicao won 3 of the last 5
11	Alverca	10	3	2	5	-1	11	Alverca won 3 of the last 5
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Vitória SC	10	2	3	5	0	9	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	-9	7	Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5