GIL Vicente v FC Porto

7th0–11st

19:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
GIL Vicente		FC Porto
10	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	4
3	Corners	8
17	Fouls	17
0	Yellow cards	1
1	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	2
356	Passes	501
42%	Possession %	58%
0.43	xG	1.13

Over 1.5: 70%
Over 2.5: 43%
Over 3.5: 22%
Both score: 45%

Model pick: FC Porto 54%
Likely score: 0-1 14%
Expected goals: 0.83 – 1.56

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	GIL Vicente	19.3%	5.17	8.00 Betano	12.5%	+6.8
Match result	Draw	26.6%	3.76	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	+4.4
Match result	FC Porto	54.0%	1.85	1.53 Betano	65.4%	-11.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	69.6%	1.44	1.31 Betano	76.3%	-6.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	30.4%	3.29	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	+4.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	42.9%	2.33	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-8.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	57.1%	1.75	1.91 Betano	52.4%	+4.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	22.0%	4.55	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	-7.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	78.0%	1.28	1.36 Bet365	73.5%	+4.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	45.2%	2.21	2.20 Betano	45.5%	-0.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	54.8%	1.82	1.80 William Hill	55.6%	-0.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

FC Porto favoured against GIL Vicente

Our model makes GIL Vicente 19% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 27% and FC Porto at 54%. The goal projection is 0.83 for GIL Vicente against 1.56 for FC Porto — a substantial edge to FC Porto on expected output. A combined 2.39 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-1 14%; 1-1 12%; 0-2 11%; 0-0 10%; 1-2 9%

This season

Season records for GIL Vicente and FC Porto
GIL Vicente		FC Porto
10	Played	10
4-3-3	W-D-L	10-0-0
1.50	Pts / game	3.00
0.80	Goals for / game	2.50
0.70	Goals against / game	0.40
20%	Over 2.5	60%
30%	BTTS	40%
50%	Clean sheets	60%
40%	Failed to score	0%
2-2-2	Home record	5-0-0
2-1-1	Away record	5-0-0
D1	Streak	W10

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. GIL Vicente · FC Porto

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.8	Shots	18.8
2.5	Shots on target	7.8
2.3	Corners	6.3
2.50	Cards	1.75
14.3	Fouls	15.5
48	Possession %	57
1.05	xG	1.94
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.3	Shots	9.0
3.5	Shots on target	2.3
4.8	Corners	2.0
2.00	Cards	2.00
15.8	Fouls	12.8
52	Possession %	43
1.03	xG	0.54
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
GIL Vicente	Metric	FC Porto
1.20	Goals scored	2.80 (better)
1.40	Goals conceded	1.40
1.42	Expected goals (xG)	1.76 (better)
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
17.25 (better)	Total shots	16.75
	Touches in opp. box
3.50	Corners	5.00 (better)
54.5 (better)	Possession %	52.3
488 (better)	Passes	391
	Tackles
13.00 (better)	Fouls	14.25
2.33	Offsides	1.67 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.25
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

GIL Vicente wins: 0
Draws: 0
FC Porto wins: 3
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 0%

GIL Vicente v FC Porto0–12026-10-24
FC Porto v GIL Vicente3–02026-01-26
GIL Vicente v FC Porto0–22025-08-18

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+19	25	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	+12	21	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	+9	21	Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5	Arouca	11	6	2	3	+5	20	Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	+3	20	Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	10	4	3	3	+1	15	GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8	SC Braga	10	4	2	4	+1	14	SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	-4	14	Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	+1	13	Famalicao won 3 of the last 5
11	Alverca	10	3	2	5	-1	11	Alverca won 3 of the last 5
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Vitória SC	10	2	3	5	0	9	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	-9	7	Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5