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Primeira Liga predictions: matchweek 9 (23–26 October 2026)

Every Primeira Liga match in matchweek 9 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 17 Oct 2026, updated 19 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Primeira Liga, matchweek 9: nine matches, played across 23–26 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Sporting CP, 64% to beat Academico Viseu at home; the most evenly balanced game is Alverca v Arouca (Alverca 36%, draw 26%, Arouca 38%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Sporting CP v Academico Viseu, at 3.05; the tightest looks GIL Vicente v FC Porto, at 2.39.

Going into the round, FC Porto lead on 24 points, five points clear of Benfica, with Sporting CP third on 18. The bottom three are Nacional (4), Casa Pia (4), Estoril (2).

The numbers this season

Primeira Liga has averaged 2.75 goals a game over 71 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 55% of them and both sides scoring in 51%. Home sides have won 39% of matches, 25% have been drawn and away sides have won 35%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Vitória SC v MaritimoFri 23 Oct, 20:45

Our model makes Vitória SC 40%, the draw 28% and Maritimo 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.54 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Vitória SC to win at 40%. Vitória SC are 15th on 5 points from 8; Maritimo are 11th on 8 points from 8. Vitória SC are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Maritimo are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats).

Alverca v AroucaSat 24 Oct, 15:30

Our model makes Alverca 36%, the draw 26% and Arouca 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.86 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is both teams to score at 58%. Alverca are 7th on 11 points from 8; Arouca are 5th on 14 points from 8. Alverca have won three of their last five; Arouca have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Alverca wins, draws and Arouca wins.

Estrela v Casa PiaSat 24 Oct, 15:30

Our model makes Estrela 48%, the draw 26% and Casa Pia 26%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is Estrela to win at 48%. Estrela are 10th on 10 points from 8; Casa Pia are 17th on 4 points from 8. Estrela have won one of their last five; Casa Pia have won one of their last five. Estrela have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

GIL Vicente v FC PortoSat 24 Oct, 20:30

Our model makes GIL Vicente 19%, the draw 27% and FC Porto 54%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (14%), 2.39 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is FC Porto to win at 54%. GIL Vicente are 8th on 11 points from 7; FC Porto are 1st on 24 points from 8. GIL Vicente have won one of their last five; FC Porto have won all of their last five. FC Porto have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Estoril v MoreirenseSun 25 Oct, 15:30

Our model makes Estoril 44%, the draw 27% and Moreirense 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.61 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Estoril to win at 44%. Estoril are 18th on 2 points from 8; Moreirense are 12th on 8 points from 8. Estoril are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Moreirense have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Nacional v SC BragaSun 25 Oct, 18:00

Our model makes Nacional 20%, the draw 25% and SC Braga 55%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.64 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is SC Braga to win at 55%. Nacional are 16th on 4 points from 8; SC Braga are 9th on 11 points from 7. Nacional have lost all of their last five; SC Braga have won two of their last five. SC Braga have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

Rio Ave v FamalicaoSun 25 Oct, 18:00

Our model makes Rio Ave 25%, the draw 27% and Famalicao 48%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Famalicao to win at 48%. Rio Ave are 14th on 7 points from 8; Famalicao are 13th on 7 points from 8. Rio Ave have won one of their last five; Famalicao have won one of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.

Sporting CP v Academico ViseuSun 25 Oct, 20:30

Our model makes Sporting CP 64%, the draw 21% and Academico Viseu 15%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (11%), 3.05 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Sporting CP to win at 64%. Sporting CP are 3rd on 18 points from 8; Academico Viseu are 6th on 14 points from 8. Sporting CP are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Academico Viseu have won four of their last five.

Santa Clara v BenficaMon 26 Oct, 18:45

Our model makes Santa Clara 18%, the draw 23% and Benfica 59%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.86 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Benfica to win at 59%. Santa Clara are 4th on 18 points from 8; Benfica are 2nd on 19 points from 8. Santa Clara are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Benfica have won four of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published four picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.