Nacional v SC Braga

15th1–08th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Nacional		SC Braga
8	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	2
4	Corners	6
18	Fouls	12
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	3
227	Passes	541
29%	Possession %	71%
0.52	xG	1.69

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 50%

Model pick: SC Braga 55%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 0.93 – 1.70

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.2%	3.67	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-3.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.8%	1.37	1.37 Betano	73.0%	-0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	50.2%	1.99	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	+1.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.8%	2.01	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-3.7
Match result	Nacional	19.9%	5.01	7.00 Bet365	14.3%	+5.7
Match result	Draw	25.1%	3.99	4.50 Betano	22.2%	+2.9
Match result	SC Braga	55.0%	1.82	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	-8.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.5%	1.34	1.30 Betano	76.9%	-2.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.5%	3.93	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-0.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.1%	2.04	1.90 Bet365	52.6%	-3.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.9%	1.96	1.98 Betano	50.5%	+0.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

SC Braga favoured against Nacional

Our model makes Nacional 20% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 25% and SC Braga at 55%. The goal projection is 0.93 for Nacional against 1.70 for SC Braga — a substantial edge to SC Braga on expected output. A combined 2.64 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 50%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 12%; 0-2 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Nacional and SC Braga
Nacional		SC Braga
10	Played	10
2-1-7	W-D-L	4-2-4
0.70	Pts / game	1.40
1.00	Goals for / game	1.20
1.90	Goals against / game	1.10
50%	Over 2.5	60%
40%	BTTS	50%
20%	Clean sheets	40%
40%	Failed to score	20%
2-0-3	Home record	3-0-2
0-1-4	Away record	1-2-2
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Nacional · SC Braga

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
8.3	Shots	15.2
3.3	Shots on target	3.4
4.7	Corners	5.4
1.33	Cards	2.80
15.0	Fouls	14.6
37	Possession %	58
0.71	xG	1.26
3 matches	sample	5 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.3	Shots	8.2
4.7	Shots on target	2.6
7.3	Corners	2.6
2.33	Cards	2.85
8.3	Fouls	11.8
63	Possession %	42
1.39	xG	0.85
3 matches	sample	5 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Nacional	Metric	SC Braga
0.60	Goals scored	0.60
2.60	Goals conceded	1.60 (better)
1.18 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.99
	Big chances
3.25	Shots on target	3.40 (better)
10.00	Total shots	11.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.25	Corners	5.20 (better)
47.3	Possession %	57.2 (better)
398	Passes	561 (better)
	Tackles
10.50 (better)	Fouls	13.00
1.25 (better)	Offsides	1.80
	Throw-ins
1.00	Yellow cards	1.00
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Nacional wins: 2
Draws: 0
SC Braga wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.75
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Nacional v SC Braga1–02026-10-25
Nacional v SC Braga1–22026-02-28
SC Braga v Nacional4–22025-11-23
SC Braga v Nacional0–12025-09-28

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+19	25	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	+12	21	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	+9	21	Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5	Arouca	10	6	2	2	+6	20	Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	+3	20	Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	10	4	3	3	+1	15	GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8	SC Braga	10	4	2	4	+1	14	SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	-4	14	Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
10	Alverca	10	3	2	5	-1	11	Alverca won 3 of the last 5
11	Famalicao	10	2	4	4	0	10	Famalicao won 2 of the last 5
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Vitória SC	10	2	3	5	0	9	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	-9	7	Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5