Alverca v Arouca

10th0–15th

17:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Alverca		Arouca
10	Shots	17
1	Shots on target	4
3	Corners	3
9	Fouls	14
1	Yellow cards	2
2	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
279	Passes	712
29%	Possession %	71%
0.43	xG	2.06

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Arouca 38%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.41 – 1.45

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.4%	1.71	1.75 William Hill	57.1%	+1.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.6%	2.41	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-3.9
Match result	Alverca	36.0%	2.78	2.25 Betano	44.4%	-8.5
Match result	Draw	26.1%	3.83	3.45 Dafabet	29.0%	-2.8
Match result	Arouca	37.9%	2.64	3.75 Betfair	26.7%	+11.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.5%	1.27	1.31 Betano	76.3%	+2.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.5%	4.65	3.70 Betfair	27.0%	-5.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.5%	1.84	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+3.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.5%	2.20	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-5.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.2%	3.11	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	+2.7
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.8%	1.47	1.36 Betano	73.5%	-5.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Alverca v Arouca: too close to call

Our model makes Alverca 36% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Arouca at 38%. The goal projection is 1.41 for Alverca against 1.45 for Arouca — almost nothing to Arouca on expected output. A combined 2.86 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 8%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Alverca and Arouca
Alverca		Arouca
10	Played	10
3-2-5	W-D-L	6-2-2
1.10	Pts / game	2.00
1.30	Goals for / game	1.30
1.40	Goals against / game	0.70
50%	Over 2.5	40%
60%	BTTS	30%
10%	Clean sheets	60%
30%	Failed to score	20%
1-2-2	Home record	4-0-1
2-0-3	Away record	2-2-1
L2	Streak	W3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Alverca · Arouca

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.7	Shots	12.0
3.3	Shots on target	4.0
3.7	Corners	5.3
2.67	Cards	3.00
17.0	Fouls	10.0
33	Possession %	57
1.32	xG	1.19
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
14.3	Shots	8.7
3.3	Shots on target	1.3
6.3	Corners	3.7
2.00	Cards	2.33
12.0	Fouls	8.7
67	Possession %	43
1.38	xG	0.75
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Alverca	Metric	Arouca
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.00	Goals conceded	1.00
1.77 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.25
	Big chances
4.20	Shots on target	4.20
11.60	Total shots	12.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.60 (better)	Corners	3.20
41.8	Possession %	50.4 (better)
336	Passes	451 (better)
	Tackles
16.00	Fouls	11.60 (better)
1.60	Offsides	1.50 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	3.20
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Alverca wins: 1
Draws: 0
Arouca wins: 2
Goals / game: 1.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Alverca v Arouca0–12026-10-24
Alverca v Arouca2–12026-04-24
Arouca v Alverca1–02025-12-14

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+19	25	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	+12	21	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	+9	21	Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5	Arouca	10	6	2	2	+6	20	Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	+3	20	Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	10	4	3	3	+1	15	GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8	SC Braga	10	4	2	4	+1	14	SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	-4	14	Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
10	Alverca	10	3	2	5	-1	11	Alverca won 3 of the last 5
11	Famalicao	10	2	4	4	0	10	Famalicao won 2 of the last 5
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Vitória SC	10	2	3	5	0	9	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	-9	7	Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5