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Primeira Liga predictions: matchweek 11 (6–8 November 2026)

Every Primeira Liga match in matchweek 11 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 30 Oct 2026, updated 1 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Primeira Liga, matchweek 11: nine matches, played across 6–8 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Benfica, 78% to beat Estrela away; the most evenly balanced game is Santa Clara v GIL Vicente (Santa Clara 40%, draw 30%, GIL Vicente 30%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Estrela v Benfica, at 4.02; the tightest looks Santa Clara v GIL Vicente, at 2.21.

Going into the round, FC Porto lead on 30 points, eight points clear of Benfica, with Sporting CP third on 21. The bottom three are Rio Ave (7), Casa Pia (7), Estoril (2).

The numbers this season

Primeira Liga has averaged 2.75 goals a game over 84 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 56% of them and both sides scoring in 49%. Home sides have won 38% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 40%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Famalicao v AroucaFri 6 Nov, 20:45

Our model makes Famalicao 41%, the draw 27% and Arouca 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.63 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Famalicao to win at 41%. Famalicao are 11th on 10 points from 9; Arouca are 5th on 17 points from 9. Famalicao have won two of their last five; Arouca have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Nacional v Academico ViseuSat 7 Nov, 15:30

Our model makes Nacional 27%, the draw 27% and Academico Viseu 46%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.54 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is Academico Viseu to win at 46%. Nacional are 15th on 7 points from 9; Academico Viseu are 6th on 17 points from 9. Nacional have won one of their last five; Academico Viseu have won all of their last five.

Alverca v Casa PiaSat 7 Nov, 18:00

Our model makes Alverca 46%, the draw 29% and Casa Pia 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 59%. Alverca are 9th on 11 points from 9; Casa Pia are 17th on 7 points from 10. Alverca have won three of their last five; Casa Pia have won two of their last five. Alverca have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Sporting CP v MoreirenseSat 7 Nov, 20:30

Our model makes Sporting CP 72%, the draw 17% and Moreirense 10%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (12%), 3.20 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is Sporting CP to win at 72%. Sporting CP are 3rd on 21 points from 10; Moreirense are 8th on 14 points from 10. Sporting CP have won two of their last five; Moreirense have won three of their last five. Sporting CP have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Estoril v MaritimoSun 8 Nov, 15:30

Our model makes Estoril 43%, the draw 25% and Maritimo 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.06 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is both teams to score at 62%. Estoril are 18th on 2 points from 10; Maritimo are 14th on 8 points from 9. Estoril have lost all of their last five; Maritimo are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats).

Santa Clara v GIL VicenteSun 8 Nov, 15:30

Our model makes Santa Clara 40%, the draw 30% and GIL Vicente 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.21 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 62%. Santa Clara are 4th on 18 points from 9; GIL Vicente are 7th on 14 points from 9. Santa Clara have won three of their last five; GIL Vicente have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Santa Clara wins, draws and GIL Vicente wins.

Vitória SC v FC PortoSun 8 Nov, 18:00

Our model makes Vitória SC 19%, the draw 27% and FC Porto 55%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (14%), 2.36 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 44%. The headline call is FC Porto to win at 55%. Vitória SC are 13th on 8 points from 9; FC Porto are 1st on 30 points from 10. Vitória SC have won one of their last five; FC Porto have won all of their last five. FC Porto have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Estrela v BenficaSun 8 Nov, 20:30

Our model makes Estrela 9%, the draw 13% and Benfica 78%. The likeliest score is 0-3 (8%), 4.02 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Benfica to win at 78%. Estrela are 12th on 10 points from 10; Benfica are 2nd on 22 points from 9. Estrela are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Benfica have won four of their last five. Benfica have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Rio Ave v SC BragaSun 8 Nov, 20:30

Our model makes Rio Ave 17%, the draw 24% and SC Braga 59%. The likeliest score is 0-1 (12%), 2.69 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is SC Braga to win at 59%. Rio Ave are 16th on 7 points from 9; SC Braga are 10th on 11 points from 9. Rio Ave have won one of their last five; SC Braga have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.