Estrela v 
Benfica
- Over 1.5
- 91%
- Over 2.5
- 76%
- Over 3.5
- 57%
- Both score
- 60%
- Model pick
- Benfica 78%
- Likely score
- 0-3 8%
- Expected goals
- 0.99 – 3.03
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Benfica favoured against Estrela
Our model makes Estrela 9% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 13% and Benfica at 78%. The goal projection is 0.99 for Estrela against 3.03 for Benfica — a commanding edge to Benfica on expected output. A combined 4.02 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 76% and both teams to score at 60%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-3 at 8%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Benfica is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 22% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 0-3 8%
- 1-3 8%
- 0-2 8%
- 1-2 8%
- 0-4 6%
This season
| Estrela | Benfica | |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Played | 10 |
| 2-4-4 | W-D-L | 8-1-1 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 2.50 |
| 1.50 | Goals for / game | 2.70 |
| 1.90 | Goals against / game | 0.80 |
| 70% | Over 2.5 | 80% |
| 70% | BTTS | 50% |
| 0% | Clean sheets | 50% |
| 30% | Failed to score | 0% |
| 1-2-2 | Home record | 4-1-0 |
| 1-2-2 | Away record | 4-0-1 |
| L4 | Streak | W3 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Estrela · Benfica
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 14.0 | Shots | 16.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.8 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 5.3 | Corners | 6.3 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 3.75 |
| 11.3 | Fouls | 11.3 |
| 58 | Possession % | 61 |
| 1.31 | xG | 1.80 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 9.0 | Shots | 12.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 3.8 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.50 | Cards | 3.75 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 18.0 |
| 42 | Possession % | 39 |
| 0.70 | xG | 1.00 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Estrela | Metric | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Goals scored | 3.20 (better) |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 0.80 (better) |
| 1.17 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.72 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.75 | Shots on target | 6.25 (better) |
| 14.00 | Total shots | 22.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.25 | Corners | 6.75 (better) |
| 58.3 | Possession % | 60.3 (better) |
| 480 | Passes | 580 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.25 | Fouls | 10.50 (better) |
| 3.00 | Offsides | 1.75 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.50 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.50 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Estrela wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Benfica wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.50
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 0%
- Benfica v Estrela4–02026-01-25
- Estrela v Benfica0–12025-08-16
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 10 | 10 | 0 | 0 | +21 | 30 | FC Porto won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Benfica | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | +19 | 25 | Benfica won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 21 | Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | +9 | 21 | Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | +5 | 20 | Arouca won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 20 | Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5 |
| 7 | GIL Vicente | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 15 | GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | SC Braga | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 14 | SC Braga won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Moreirense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 | Moreirense won 3 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Famalicao | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | +1 | 13 | Famalicao won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Alverca | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 11 | Alverca won 3 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Estrela | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 | Estrela won 0 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Vitória SC | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 9 | Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Maritimo | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 | Maritimo won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Nacional | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -9 | 7 | Nacional won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 | Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 7 | Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -14 | 2 | Estoril won 0 of the last 5 |