Rio Ave v Famalicao

16th0–411th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Rio Ave		Famalicao
7	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	5
4	Corners	2
21	Fouls	15
3	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	0
536	Passes	401
58%	Possession %	42%
0.66	xG	1.71

Over 1.5: 73%
Over 2.5: 47%
Over 3.5: 25%
Both score: 51%

Model pick: Famalicao 48%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.03 – 1.53

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Rio Ave -0.25

3.45Bet365 · fair 3.15 · qualifies at 3.25+ · 0.97u

Why this price?

Back Rio Ave -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 3.45 with Bet365 — Rio Ave must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 29% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 34%; we judge it at 32%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.15. The offered 3.45 implies only 29%, so the price is 9.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.97 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Rio Ave 1.03, Famalicao 1.53.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	49.0%	2.04	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-2.3
Match result	Rio Ave	25.0%	4.00	3.80 Bet365	26.3%	-1.3
Match result	Draw	26.9%	3.72	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	-2.5
Match result	Famalicao	48.1%	2.08	2.11 Dafabet	47.4%	+0.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	73.1%	1.37	1.37 Betano	73.0%	+0.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	26.9%	3.71	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	-3.8
Total goals	Over 2.5	47.1%	2.12	2.10 Betano	47.6%	-0.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	52.9%	1.89	1.78 Betano	56.2%	-3.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	25.5%	3.92	3.80 BetVictor	26.3%	-0.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	74.5%	1.34	1.29 Betano	77.5%	-3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	51.0%	1.96	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-1.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Famalicao favoured against Rio Ave

Our model makes Rio Ave 25% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 27% and Famalicao at 48%. The goal projection is 1.03 for Rio Ave against 1.53 for Famalicao — a clear edge to Famalicao on expected output. A combined 2.56 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 0-1 11%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 9%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Rio Ave and Famalicao
Rio Ave		Famalicao
10	Played	10
2-1-7	W-D-L	2-4-4
0.70	Pts / game	1.00
0.90	Goals for / game	1.40
2.30	Goals against / game	1.40
60%	Over 2.5	60%
30%	BTTS	50%
10%	Clean sheets	30%
60%	Failed to score	30%
1-1-3	Home record	0-2-2
1-0-4	Away record	2-2-2
L2	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Rio Ave · Famalicao

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.0	Shots	9.7
4.7	Shots on target	2.7
6.0	Corners	3.7
3.00	Cards	2.33
13.3	Fouls	11.7
56	Possession %	49
1.18	xG	0.77
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.3	Shots	12.0
5.0	Shots on target	3.7
5.0	Corners	4.7
0.33	Cards	3.33
13.3	Fouls	24.0
44	Possession %	51
1.31	xG	1.59
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Rio Ave	Metric	Famalicao
1.40	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
2.00	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
0.87 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.85
	Big chances
4.75 (better)	Shots on target	3.20
8.25	Total shots	10.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.25	Corners	5.20 (better)
47.0	Possession %	51.4 (better)
372	Passes	436 (better)
	Tackles
10.00 (better)	Fouls	10.80
0.33 (better)	Offsides	0.75
	Throw-ins
1.75 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.25	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Rio Ave wins: 0
Draws: 2
Famalicao wins: 1
Goals / game: 1.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 0%

Rio Ave v Famalicao0–42026-10-25
Rio Ave v Famalicao0–02026-03-01
Famalicao v Rio Ave0–02025-09-28

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+19	25	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	+12	21	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	+9	21	Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5	Arouca	10	6	2	2	+6	20	Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	+3	20	Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	10	4	3	3	+1	15	GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8	SC Braga	10	4	2	4	+1	14	SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	-4	14	Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
10	Alverca	10	3	2	5	-1	11	Alverca won 3 of the last 5
11	Famalicao	10	2	4	4	0	10	Famalicao won 2 of the last 5
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Vitória SC	10	2	3	5	0	9	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	-9	7	Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5