GIL Vicente v Vitória SC

7th0–013th

20:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
GIL Vicente		Vitória SC
10	Shots	11
1	Shots on target	2
2	Corners	3
17	Fouls	21
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
406	Passes	432
48%	Possession %	52%
0.73	xG	0.48

Over 1.5: 67%
Over 2.5: 40%
Over 3.5: 20%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: GIL Vicente 40%
Likely score: 1-1 14%
Expected goals: 1.23 – 1.05

Advised bets

Half lostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

GIL Vicente -0.25

2.23Marathonbet · fair 2.06 · qualifies at 2.12+ · 1.72u

Why this price?

Back GIL Vicente -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.23 with Marathonbet — GIL Vicente must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 50%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.06. The offered 2.23 implies only 45%, so the price is 8.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.72 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: GIL Vicente 1.23, Vitória SC 1.05.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.7%	5.06	4.20 Betfair	23.8%	-4.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	80.3%	1.25	1.25 Bet365	80.0%	+0.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	46.7%	2.14	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-5.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.3%	1.88	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	+4.5
Match result	GIL Vicente	39.8%	2.52	3.00 Betano	33.3%	+6.4
Match result	Draw	29.6%	3.37	3.30 Bet365	30.3%	-0.7
Match result	Vitória SC	30.6%	3.27	2.62 Betano	38.2%	-7.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	67.2%	1.49	1.42 Betano	70.4%	-3.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	32.8%	3.05	3.25 Bet365	30.8%	+2.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	40.0%	2.50	2.25 Bet365	44.4%	-4.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	60.0%	1.67	1.73 Betfair	57.8%	+2.2

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

GIL Vicente favoured against Vitória SC

Our model makes GIL Vicente 40% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 30% and Vitória SC at 31%. The goal projection is 1.23 for GIL Vicente against 1.05 for Vitória SC — a slight edge to GIL Vicente on expected output. A combined 2.28 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 40% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 14%; 1-0 12%; 0-0 11%; 0-1 10%; 2-1 8%

This season

Season records for GIL Vicente and Vitória SC
GIL Vicente		Vitória SC
10	Played	10
4-3-3	W-D-L	2-3-5
1.50	Pts / game	0.90
0.80	Goals for / game	1.00
0.70	Goals against / game	1.00
20%	Over 2.5	30%
30%	BTTS	30%
50%	Clean sheets	40%
40%	Failed to score	50%
2-2-2	Home record	2-2-1
2-1-1	Away record	0-1-4
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. GIL Vicente · Vitória SC

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.8	Shots	12.8
2.5	Shots on target	3.8
2.3	Corners	4.5
2.50	Cards	3.33
14.3	Fouls	17.3
48	Possession %	54
1.05	xG	0.96
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.3	Shots	12.5
3.5	Shots on target	2.8
4.8	Corners	4.5
2.00	Cards	2.33
15.8	Fouls	12.5
52	Possession %	47
1.03	xG	1.16
4 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
GIL Vicente	Metric	Vitória SC
1.40	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
1.00	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
1.17 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.11
	Big chances
3.25	Shots on target	4.33 (better)
13.00	Total shots	13.67 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.75	Corners	5.00 (better)
50.8	Possession %	54.0 (better)
464	Passes	475 (better)
	Tackles
12.25 (better)	Fouls	16.00
2.00	Offsides	1.33 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	3.00
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

GIL Vicente wins: 0
Draws: 2
Vitória SC wins: 1
Goals / game: 0.33
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+19	25	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	+12	21	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	+9	21	Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5	Arouca	11	6	2	3	+5	20	Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	+3	20	Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	10	4	3	3	+1	15	GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8	SC Braga	10	4	2	4	+1	14	SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	-4	14	Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	+1	13	Famalicao won 3 of the last 5
11	Alverca	10	3	2	5	-1	11	Alverca won 3 of the last 5
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Vitória SC	10	2	3	5	0	9	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	-9	7	Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5