Predicted Edge

SC Braga v Famalicao

SC Braga won 1 of the last 58th3–0Famalicao won 3 of the last 510th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
SC Braga Famalicao
15Shots4
4Shots on target1
7Corners1
24Fouls9
5Yellow cards3
0Red cards1
1Offsides1
516Passes375
59%Possession %41%
1.19xG0.19
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
21%
Both score
46%
Model pick
SC Braga 48%
Likely score
1-1 13%
Expected goals
1.41 – 0.92

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

SC Braga -0.75

1.79Marathonbet · fair 1.61 · qualifies at 1.65+ · 2.00u
Why this price?

Back SC Braga -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.79 with Marathonbet — SC Braga must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 40% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 77%; we judge it at 62%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.61. The offered 1.79 implies only 56%, so the price is 11.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: SC Braga 1.41, Famalicao 0.92.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultSC Braga47.7%2.101.80 Dafabet55.6%-7.9
Match resultDraw28.4%3.524.05 Betano24.7%+3.7
Match resultFamalicao24.0%4.175.50 Betfair18.2%+5.8
Total goalsOver 1.568.2%1.471.35 Betano74.1%-5.9
Total goalsUnder 1.531.8%3.143.40 Bet36529.4%+2.4
Total goalsOver 2.541.1%2.432.30 Betfair43.5%-2.4
Total goalsUnder 2.558.9%1.701.85 Bet36554.1%+4.8
Total goalsOver 3.520.6%4.853.80 Betfair26.3%-5.7
Total goalsUnder 3.579.4%1.261.30 Bet36576.9%+2.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes46.1%2.172.05 Bet36548.8%-2.7
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No53.9%1.851.87 Betfair53.5%+0.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

SC Braga favoured against Famalicao

Our model makes SC Braga 48% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 28% and Famalicao at 24%. The goal projection is 1.41 for SC Braga against 0.92 for Famalicao — a clear edge to SC Braga on expected output. A combined 2.33 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 41% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 13%
1-0 13%
0-0 10%
2-0 10%
2-1 9%

This season

Season records for SC Braga and Famalicao
SC Braga Famalicao
10Played11
4-2-4W-D-L3-4-4
1.40Pts / game1.18
1.20Goals for / game1.36
1.10Goals against / game1.27
60%Over 2.555%
50%BTTS45%
40%Clean sheets36%
20%Failed to score27%
3-0-2Home record1-2-2
1-2-2Away record2-2-2
W1StreakW1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. SC Braga · Famalicao

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.2Shots9.7
3.4Shots on target2.7
5.4Corners3.7
2.80Cards2.33
14.6Fouls11.7
58Possession %49
1.26xG0.77
5 matchessample3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.2Shots12.0
2.6Shots on target3.7
2.6Corners4.7
2.85Cards3.33
11.8Fouls24.0
42Possession %51
0.85xG1.59
5 matchessample3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
SC BragaMetricFamalicao
0.80Goals scored1.60 (better)
1.60Goals conceded1.60
1.21 (better)Expected goals (xG)1.00
Big chances
4.40 (better)Shots on target3.75
14.00 (better)Total shots11.00
Touches in opp. box
4.60Corners5.00 (better)
55.4 (better)Possession %50.3
561 (better)Passes424
Tackles
13.20Fouls11.00 (better)
1.60Offsides1.00 (better)
Throw-ins
1.80 (better)Yellow cards2.50
0.00 (better)Red cards0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
SC Braga wins
2
Draws
1
Famalicao wins
0
Goals / game
3.33
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
67%
Primeira Liga table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1FC Porto101000+2130FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2Benfica10811+1925Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3Sporting CP10631+1221Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4Santa Clara10631+921Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5Arouca11623+520Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6Academico Viseu10622+320Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7GIL Vicente10433+115GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8SC Braga10424+114SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
9Moreirense10424-414Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
10Famalicao11344+113Famalicao won 3 of the last 5
11Alverca10325-111Alverca won 3 of the last 5
12Estrela10244-410Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13Vitória SC1023509Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14Maritimo10226-128Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15Nacional10217-97Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16Rio Ave10217-147Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17Casa Pia10217-147Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18Estoril10028-142Estoril won 0 of the last 5