Benfica v Alverca

2nd1–011th

20:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Benfica		Alverca
13	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	4
8	Corners	5
11	Fouls	15
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	2
582	Passes	306
65%	Possession %	35%
1.68	xG	0.62

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 67%
Over 3.5: 45%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Benfica 75%
Likely score: 2-0 11%
Expected goals: 2.62 – 0.83

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Benfica	75.3%	1.33	1.20 William Hill	83.3%	-8.1
Match result	Draw	15.6%	6.42	9.80 Dafabet	10.2%	+5.4
Match result	Alverca	9.2%	10.91	21.00 Betano	4.8%	+4.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	86.2%	1.16	1.08 Betano	92.6%	-6.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	13.8%	7.24	9.00 Bet365	11.1%	+2.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	66.9%	1.49	1.40 Betfair	71.4%	-4.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	33.1%	3.02	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	+8.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	45.2%	2.21	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-4.8
Total goals	Under 3.5	54.8%	1.82	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	+10.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.6%	1.90	2.12 Betano	47.2%	+5.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.4%	2.11	1.91 Betfair	52.4%	-5.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Benfica favoured against Alverca

Our model makes Benfica 75% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 16% and Alverca at 9%. The goal projection is 2.62 for Benfica against 0.83 for Alverca — a commanding edge to Benfica on expected output. A combined 3.45 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 67% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-0 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Benfica is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 25% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-0 11%; 3-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 3-1 8%

This season

Season records for Benfica and Alverca
Benfica		Alverca
10	Played	10
8-1-1	W-D-L	3-2-5
2.50	Pts / game	1.10
2.70	Goals for / game	1.30
0.80	Goals against / game	1.40
80%	Over 2.5	50%
50%	BTTS	60%
50%	Clean sheets	10%
0%	Failed to score	30%
4-1-0	Home record	1-2-2
4-0-1	Away record	2-0-3
W3	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Benfica · Alverca

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.0	Shots	10.7
3.8	Shots on target	3.3
6.3	Corners	3.7
3.75	Cards	2.67
11.3	Fouls	17.0
61	Possession %	33
1.80	xG	1.32
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
12.3	Shots	14.3
4.3	Shots on target	3.3
4.0	Corners	6.3
3.75	Cards	2.00
18.0	Fouls	12.0
39	Possession %	67
1.00	xG	1.38
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Benfica	Metric	Alverca
2.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.60
1.00	Goals conceded	1.00
2.11 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.95
	Big chances
5.80 (better)	Shots on target	4.75
19.00 (better)	Total shots	14.25
	Touches in opp. box
5.60 (better)	Corners	3.50
54.8 (better)	Possession %	38.8
528 (better)	Passes	323
	Tackles
10.60 (better)	Fouls	16.00
1.20	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
3.80	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.20 (better)	Red cards	0.67

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Benfica wins: 3
Draws: 0
Alverca wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 67%

Benfica v Alverca1–02026-11-02
Benfica v Alverca2–12026-02-08
Alverca v Benfica1–22025-08-31

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+19	25	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	+12	21	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	+9	21	Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5	Arouca	11	6	2	3	+5	20	Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	+3	20	Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	10	4	3	3	+1	15	GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8	SC Braga	10	4	2	4	+1	14	SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	-4	14	Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	+1	13	Famalicao won 3 of the last 5
11	Alverca	10	3	2	5	-1	11	Alverca won 3 of the last 5
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Vitória SC	10	2	3	5	0	9	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	-9	7	Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5