Maritimo v Santa Clara

14th0–24th

18:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Maritimo		Santa Clara
17	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	5
5	Corners	2
17	Fouls	18
3	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	4
385	Passes	359
52%	Possession %	48%
2.10	xG	0.84

Over 1.5: 76%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Santa Clara 49%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.08 – 1.61

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Maritimo	24.9%	4.01	3.55 Betano	28.2%	-3.2
Match result	Draw	26.0%	3.84	3.25 Dafabet	30.8%	-4.7
Match result	Santa Clara	49.0%	2.04	2.40 Betfair	41.7%	+7.4
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.5%	1.32	1.50 Betano	66.7%	+8.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.5%	4.08	2.67 Betano	37.5%	-13.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	50.3%	1.99	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	+11.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	49.7%	2.01	1.57 Betano	63.7%	-14.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.3%	3.53	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	+8.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.7%	1.40	1.20 Betano	83.3%	-11.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.4%	1.87	2.07 Betano	48.3%	+5.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	46.6%	2.15	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	-10.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Santa Clara favoured against Maritimo

Our model makes Maritimo 25% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 26% and Santa Clara at 49%. The goal projection is 1.08 for Maritimo against 1.61 for Santa Clara — a substantial edge to Santa Clara on expected output. A combined 2.69 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 9%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Maritimo and Santa Clara
Maritimo		Santa Clara
10	Played	10
2-2-6	W-D-L	6-3-1
0.80	Pts / game	2.10
0.90	Goals for / game	1.50
2.10	Goals against / game	0.60
70%	Over 2.5	40%
60%	BTTS	40%
10%	Clean sheets	60%
30%	Failed to score	10%
1-1-3	Home record	2-2-1
1-1-3	Away record	4-1-0
L3	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Maritimo · Santa Clara

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.3	Shots	12.0
4.0	Shots on target	3.5
4.0	Corners	4.0
2.33	Cards	4.00
14.3	Fouls	15.3
45	Possession %	49
0.97	xG	1.04
3 matches	sample	4 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.3	Shots	11.5
7.3	Shots on target	3.0
4.7	Corners	4.0
3.00	Cards	4.17
16.0	Fouls	15.0
55	Possession %	51
1.62	xG	1.23
3 matches	sample	4 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Maritimo	Metric	Santa Clara
1.00	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
2.40	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
0.59	Expected goals (xG)	1.15 (better)
	Big chances
2.75	Shots on target	3.50 (better)
9.00	Total shots	13.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.75	Corners	5.50 (better)
46.8	Possession %	51.0 (better)
375	Passes	436 (better)
	Tackles
13.75	Fouls	12.50 (better)
2.00	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	3.25
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Maritimo wins: 0
Draws: 0
Santa Clara wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Maritimo v Santa Clara0–22026-11-01

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+19	25	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	+12	21	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	+9	21	Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5	Arouca	11	6	2	3	+5	20	Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	+3	20	Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	10	4	3	3	+1	15	GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8	SC Braga	10	4	2	4	+1	14	SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	-4	14	Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	+1	13	Famalicao won 3 of the last 5
11	Alverca	10	3	2	5	-1	11	Alverca won 3 of the last 5
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Vitória SC	10	2	3	5	0	9	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	-9	7	Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5