Casa Pia v Sporting CP

17th0–23rd

20:15 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Casa Pia		Sporting CP
12	Shots	23
2	Shots on target	11
3	Corners	4
11	Fouls	15
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	2
385	Passes	482
45%	Possession %	55%
0.39	xG	2.71

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 47%

Model pick: Sporting CP 71%
Likely score: 0-2 13%
Expected goals: 0.74 – 2.25

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 2.5

2.60Bet365 · fair 2.48 · qualifies at 2.58+ · 0.75u

Why this price?

Back under 2.5 goals at 2.60 with Bet365 — 2 goals or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 43% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 39%; we judge it at 40%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.48. The offered 2.60 implies only 38%, so the price is 4.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.75 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Casa Pia 0.74, Sporting CP 2.25.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Casa Pia	10.3%	9.71	11.00 Betfair	9.1%	+1.2
Match result	Draw	18.5%	5.42	6.20 Dafabet	16.1%	+2.3
Match result	Sporting CP	71.2%	1.40	1.32 Betano	75.8%	-4.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.2%	1.25	1.19 Betano	84.0%	-3.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.8%	5.06	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	+3.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.3%	1.75	1.60 Betano	62.5%	-5.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.7%	2.34	2.60 Bet365	38.5%	+4.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.9%	2.87	2.55 Betfair	39.2%	-4.3
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.1%	1.54	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+5.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	47.0%	2.13	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	-1.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	53.0%	1.89	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-0.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sporting CP favoured against Casa Pia

Our model makes Casa Pia 10% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 18% and Sporting CP at 71%. The goal projection is 0.74 for Casa Pia against 2.25 for Sporting CP — a commanding edge to Sporting CP on expected output. A combined 2.98 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Sporting CP is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 29% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-2 13%; 0-1 11%; 0-3 10%; 1-2 9%; 1-1 9%

This season

Season records for Casa Pia and Sporting CP
Casa Pia		Sporting CP
10	Played	10
2-1-7	W-D-L	6-3-1
0.70	Pts / game	2.10
0.50	Goals for / game	2.30
1.90	Goals against / game	1.10
30%	Over 2.5	70%
20%	BTTS	70%
20%	Clean sheets	30%
70%	Failed to score	0%
0-0-5	Home record	3-1-1
2-1-2	Away record	3-2-0
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Casa Pia · Sporting CP

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
9.5	Shots	20.0
2.8	Shots on target	6.0
3.8	Corners	5.7
2.58	Cards	1.67
13.0	Fouls	13.0
42	Possession %	59
0.97	xG	1.91
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.3	Shots	12.0
6.3	Shots on target	3.0
6.3	Corners	2.7
2.75	Cards	2.33
12.0	Fouls	10.3
58	Possession %	41
1.51	xG	0.93
4 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Casa Pia	Metric	Sporting CP
0.80	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.10	Expected goals (xG)	1.89 (better)
	Big chances
3.25	Shots on target	4.00 (better)
9.50	Total shots	12.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	4.00
37.3	Possession %	55.8 (better)
273	Passes	515 (better)
	Tackles
11.75	Fouls	10.40 (better)
1.25 (better)	Offsides	1.60
	Throw-ins
2.75	Yellow cards	2.20 (better)
0.25	Red cards	0.25

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Casa Pia wins: 0
Draws: 0
Sporting CP wins: 3
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 0%

Casa Pia v Sporting CP0–22026-10-30
Sporting CP v Casa Pia3–02026-01-16
Casa Pia v Sporting CP0–22025-08-08

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+19	25	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	+12	21	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	+9	21	Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5	Arouca	11	6	2	3	+5	20	Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	+3	20	Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	10	4	3	3	+1	15	GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8	SC Braga	10	4	2	4	+1	14	SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	-4	14	Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	+1	13	Famalicao won 3 of the last 5
11	Alverca	10	3	2	5	-1	11	Alverca won 3 of the last 5
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Vitória SC	10	2	3	5	0	9	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	-9	7	Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5