Arouca v Nacional

5th1–015th

15:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Arouca		Nacional
12	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	1
8	Corners	2
6	Fouls	10
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	1
552	Passes	337
62%	Possession %	38%
0.74	xG	0.34

Over 1.5: 80%
Over 2.5: 57%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Arouca 54%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.85 – 1.13

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Arouca	53.7%	1.86	1.83 Betano	54.6%	-0.9
Match result	Draw	23.8%	4.20	4.20 Dafabet	23.8%	-0.0
Match result	Nacional	22.5%	4.45	5.60 Betano	17.9%	+4.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	80.2%	1.25	1.28 Betano	78.1%	+2.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	19.8%	5.05	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-6.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	57.1%	1.75	1.87 Betano	53.5%	+3.6
Total goals	Under 2.5	42.9%	2.33	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-7.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	34.7%	2.88	3.15 Betano	31.7%	+2.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	65.3%	1.53	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-6.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.4%	1.74	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	+4.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.6%	2.35	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	-7.4

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Arouca favoured against Nacional

Our model makes Arouca 54% to win this Primeira Liga fixture, with the draw at 24% and Nacional at 22%. The goal projection is 1.85 for Arouca against 1.13 for Nacional — a substantial edge to Arouca on expected output. A combined 2.97 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 2-1 10%; 1-0 9%; 2-0 9%; 3-1 6%

This season

Season records for Arouca and Nacional
Arouca		Nacional
11	Played	10
6-2-3	W-D-L	2-1-7
1.82	Pts / game	0.70
1.18	Goals for / game	1.00
0.73	Goals against / game	1.90
36%	Over 2.5	50%
27%	BTTS	40%
55%	Clean sheets	20%
27%	Failed to score	40%
4-0-1	Home record	2-0-3
2-2-2	Away record	0-1-4
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Arouca · Nacional

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.0	Shots	8.3
4.0	Shots on target	3.3
5.3	Corners	4.7
3.00	Cards	1.33
10.0	Fouls	15.0
57	Possession %	37
1.19	xG	0.71
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
8.7	Shots	14.3
1.3	Shots on target	4.7
3.7	Corners	7.3
2.33	Cards	2.33
8.7	Fouls	8.3
43	Possession %	63
0.75	xG	1.39
3 matches	sample	3 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Arouca	Metric	Nacional
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.60
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	2.60
1.40 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.18
	Big chances
4.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.25
12.25 (better)	Total shots	10.00
	Touches in opp. box
3.75	Corners	4.25 (better)
54.5 (better)	Possession %	47.3
494 (better)	Passes	398
	Tackles
13.75	Fouls	10.50 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.25
	Throw-ins
3.75	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Arouca wins: 3
Draws: 0
Nacional wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Arouca v Nacional1–02026-11-01
Arouca v Nacional3–02026-02-21
Nacional v Arouca1–22025-09-20

Primeira Liga table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	FC Porto	10	10	0	0	+21	30	FC Porto won 5 of the last 5
2	Benfica	10	8	1	1	+19	25	Benfica won 4 of the last 5
3	Sporting CP	10	6	3	1	+12	21	Sporting CP won 2 of the last 5
4	Santa Clara	10	6	3	1	+9	21	Santa Clara won 3 of the last 5
5	Arouca	11	6	2	3	+5	20	Arouca won 3 of the last 5
6	Academico Viseu	10	6	2	2	+3	20	Academico Viseu won 5 of the last 5
7	GIL Vicente	10	4	3	3	+1	15	GIL Vicente won 2 of the last 5
8	SC Braga	10	4	2	4	+1	14	SC Braga won 1 of the last 5
9	Moreirense	10	4	2	4	-4	14	Moreirense won 3 of the last 5
10	Famalicao	11	3	4	4	+1	13	Famalicao won 3 of the last 5
11	Alverca	10	3	2	5	-1	11	Alverca won 3 of the last 5
12	Estrela	10	2	4	4	-4	10	Estrela won 0 of the last 5
13	Vitória SC	10	2	3	5	0	9	Vitória SC won 1 of the last 5
14	Maritimo	10	2	2	6	-12	8	Maritimo won 0 of the last 5
15	Nacional	10	2	1	7	-9	7	Nacional won 1 of the last 5
16	Rio Ave	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Rio Ave won 1 of the last 5
17	Casa Pia	10	2	1	7	-14	7	Casa Pia won 2 of the last 5
18	Estoril	10	0	2	8	-14	2	Estoril won 0 of the last 5