Poland
Ekstraklasa predictions
Every Ekstraklasa match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Ekstraklasa page.
4 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Lech Poznan, 61% against Zaglebie Lubin at home; the most evenly balanced game is Jagiellonia v GKS Katowice (Jagiellonia 40%, draw 25%, GKS Katowice 35%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Lech Poznan v Zaglebie Lubin, at 3.37.
Every match, one prediction
Today
Ekstraklasa1Most likely prediction
Tomorrow
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Match by match
Widzew Łódź v Pogon SzczecinSat 7 Nov, 19:15
Our model makes Widzew Łódź 32%, the draw 29% and Pogon Szczecin 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.33 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 59%. Widzew Łódź are 15th on 11 points from 13; Pogon Szczecin are 4th on 24 points from 12. Widzew Łódź are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Pogon Szczecin have won four of their last five. Pogon Szczecin have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Jagiellonia v GKS KatowiceSun 8 Nov, 13:45
Our model makes Jagiellonia 40%, the draw 25% and GKS Katowice 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.01 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 81%. Jagiellonia are 10th on 18 points from 12; GKS Katowice are 8th on 21 points from 13. Jagiellonia have won two of their last five; GKS Katowice have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Legia Warszawa v Raków CzęstochowaSun 8 Nov, 16:30
Our model makes Legia Warszawa 50%, the draw 25% and Raków Częstochowa 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Legia Warszawa to win at 50%. Legia Warszawa are 3rd on 24 points from 13; Raków Częstochowa are 17th on 9 points from 13. Legia Warszawa have won two of their last five; Raków Częstochowa have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.
Lech Poznan v Zaglebie LubinSun 8 Nov, 19:15
Our model makes Lech Poznan 61%, the draw 21% and Zaglebie Lubin 18%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.37 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is Lech Poznan to win at 61%. Lech Poznan are 1st on 31 points from 12; Zaglebie Lubin are 7th on 22 points from 13. Lech Poznan have won all of their last five; Zaglebie Lubin have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Lech Poznan wins, draws and Zaglebie Lubin wins.
The numbers this season
Ekstraklasa has averaged 2.97 goals a game over 119 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 61% of them and both sides scoring in 66%. Home sides have won 49% of matches, 23% have been drawn and away sides have won 29%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are Ekstraklasa predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Ekstraklasa predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in Ekstraklasa?
- 49% of matches this season, over 119 played, with 23% drawn and 29% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.97 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 61%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.