Lech Poznan v 
Zaglebie Lubin
- Over 1.5
- 85%
- Over 2.5
- 65%
- Over 3.5
- 43%
- Both score
- 61%
- Model pick
- Lech Poznan 61%
- Likely score
- 2-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 2.21 – 1.15
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Lech Poznan favoured against Zaglebie Lubin
Our model makes Lech Poznan 61% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 21% and Zaglebie Lubin at 18%. The goal projection is 2.21 for Lech Poznan against 1.15 for Zaglebie Lubin — a commanding edge to Lech Poznan on expected output. A combined 3.37 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 65% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Lech Poznan is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 39% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 10%
- 1-1 9%
- 2-0 8%
- 3-1 7%
- 1-0 7%
This season
| Lech Poznan | Zaglebie Lubin | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 13 |
| 10-1-1 | W-D-L | 6-4-3 |
| 2.58 | Pts / game | 1.69 |
| 2.67 | Goals for / game | 1.23 |
| 0.92 | Goals against / game | 1.15 |
| 83% | Over 2.5 | 46% |
| 75% | BTTS | 54% |
| 25% | Clean sheets | 38% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 23% |
| 6-1-0 | Home record | 5-1-1 |
| 4-0-1 | Away record | 1-3-2 |
| W5 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lech Poznan · Zaglebie Lubin
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.2 | Shots | 12.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.6 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 6.2 | Corners | 3.2 |
| 1.80 | Cards | 2.80 |
| 11.6 | Fouls | 12.8 |
| 56 | Possession % | 39 |
| 2.39 | xG | 1.16 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 13.4 | Shots | 16.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.2 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 5.4 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 1.80 | Cards | 1.60 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 13.6 |
| 44 | Possession % | 61 |
| 1.24 | xG | 1.71 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Lech Poznan | Metric | Zaglebie Lubin |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.00 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| 2.12 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.14 |
| Big chances | ||
| 6.25 (better) | Shots on target | 4.75 |
| 14.75 (better) | Total shots | 13.25 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Corners | 3.25 |
| 49.8 (better) | Possession % | 43.3 |
| 426 (better) | Passes | 347 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.50 | Fouls | 11.25 (better) |
| 0.25 (better) | Offsides | 1.50 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.75 |
| 0.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Lech Poznan wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Zaglebie Lubin wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 50%
- Zaglebie Lubin v Lech Poznan0–12026-03-15
- Lech Poznan v Zaglebie Lubin1–22025-09-12
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | +21 | 31 | Lech Poznan won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 28 | Gornik Zabrze won 1 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | +12 | 24 | Legia Warszawa won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +8 | 24 | Pogon Szczecin won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 24 | Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 22 | Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 22 | Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | +6 | 21 | GKS Katowice won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Motor Lublin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 18 | Jagiellonia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 18 | Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 15 | Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Radomiak Radom | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 | Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cracovia Krakow | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 12 | Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Widzew Łódź | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | -2 | 11 | Widzew Łódź won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Slask Wroclaw | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 10 | Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Raków Częstochowa | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 9 | Raków Częstochowa won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -9 | 8 | Wieczysta Kraków won 1 of the last 5 |