Legia Warszawa v 
Raków Częstochowa
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 53%
- Over 3.5
- 31%
- Both score
- 55%
- Model pick
- Legia Warszawa 50%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.68 – 1.11
Advised bets
Members only
Edge strength 5 of 5Model pick: Asian handicap
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Legia Warszawa favoured against Raków Częstochowa
Our model makes Legia Warszawa 50% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 25% and Raków Częstochowa at 25%. The goal projection is 1.68 for Legia Warszawa against 1.11 for Raków Częstochowa — a substantial edge to Legia Warszawa on expected output. A combined 2.79 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-0 10%
- 2-1 10%
- 2-0 9%
- 0-0 7%
This season
| Legia Warszawa | Raków Częstochowa | |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Played | 13 |
| 6-6-1 | W-D-L | 3-0-10 |
| 1.85 | Pts / game | 0.69 |
| 1.77 | Goals for / game | 1.46 |
| 0.85 | Goals against / game | 2.23 |
| 38% | Over 2.5 | 92% |
| 69% | BTTS | 92% |
| 31% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 8% | Failed to score | 8% |
| 3-2-1 | Home record | 2-0-5 |
| 3-4-0 | Away record | 1-0-5 |
| D1 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Legia Warszawa · Raków Częstochowa
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.2 | Shots | 18.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.4 | Shots on target | 6.0 |
| 4.2 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.60 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 13.4 | Fouls | 8.8 |
| 47 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.14 | xG | 2.17 |
| 5 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 15.2 | Shots | 13.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 4.2 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.20 | Cards | 2.50 |
| 16.2 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 53 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.34 | xG | 1.46 |
| 5 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Legia Warszawa | Metric | Raków Częstochowa |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 0.80 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 0.94 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.91 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.75 | Shots on target | 6.33 (better) |
| 12.50 | Total shots | 18.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.25 | Corners | 4.67 (better) |
| 50.3 (better) | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 445 | Passes | 468 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.25 | Fouls | 8.00 (better) |
| 1.75 | Offsides | 1.67 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.75 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.33 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Legia Warszawa wins
- 0
- Draws
- 2
- Raków Częstochowa wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 100%
- Legia Warszawa v Raków Częstochowa1–12026-03-22
- Raków Częstochowa v Legia Warszawa1–12025-09-20
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | +21 | 31 | Lech Poznan won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 28 | Gornik Zabrze won 1 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | +12 | 24 | Legia Warszawa won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +8 | 24 | Pogon Szczecin won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 24 | Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 22 | Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 22 | Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | +6 | 21 | GKS Katowice won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Motor Lublin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 18 | Jagiellonia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 18 | Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 15 | Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Radomiak Radom | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 | Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cracovia Krakow | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 12 | Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Widzew Łódź | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | -2 | 11 | Widzew Łódź won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Slask Wroclaw | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 10 | Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Raków Częstochowa | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 9 | Raków Częstochowa won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -9 | 8 | Wieczysta Kraków won 1 of the last 5 |