Jagiellonia v 
GKS Katowice
- Over 1.5
- 81%
- Over 2.5
- 58%
- Over 3.5
- 35%
- Both score
- 61%
- Model pick
- Jagiellonia 40%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.56 – 1.44
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Jagiellonia v GKS Katowice: too close to call
Our model makes Jagiellonia 40% to win this Ekstraklasa fixture, with the draw at 25% and GKS Katowice at 35%. The goal projection is 1.56 for Jagiellonia against 1.44 for GKS Katowice — a slight edge to Jagiellonia on expected output. A combined 3.01 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 8%
- 1-0 7%
- 0-1 7%
This season
| Jagiellonia | GKS Katowice | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 13 |
| 6-0-6 | W-D-L | 7-0-6 |
| 1.50 | Pts / game | 1.62 |
| 1.42 | Goals for / game | 1.92 |
| 1.50 | Goals against / game | 1.46 |
| 58% | Over 2.5 | 77% |
| 58% | BTTS | 62% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 8% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 31% |
| 3-0-3 | Home record | 5-0-1 |
| 3-0-3 | Away record | 2-0-5 |
| W2 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Jagiellonia · GKS Katowice
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 17.0 | Shots | 12.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 4.8 | Corners | 3.6 |
| 0.60 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 12.2 | Fouls | 14.2 |
| 57 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.96 | xG | 1.81 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 13.2 | Shots | 15.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 5.2 | Corners | 6.2 |
| 1.60 | Cards | 1.40 |
| 13.0 | Fouls | 10.0 |
| 43 | Possession % | 53 |
| 1.81 | xG | 1.63 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Jagiellonia | Metric | GKS Katowice |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 1.00 | Goals conceded | 1.00 |
| 1.79 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.55 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.25 (better) | Shots on target | 4.00 |
| 15.50 (better) | Total shots | 13.75 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Corners | 3.75 |
| 50.5 (better) | Possession % | 48.5 |
| 453 (better) | Passes | 426 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.75 (better) | Fouls | 13.75 |
| 1.25 (better) | Offsides | 1.50 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.00 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.67 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Jagiellonia wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- GKS Katowice wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 3.50
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- GKS Katowice v Jagiellonia2–22026-05-17
- Jagiellonia v GKS Katowice2–12026-03-17
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | +21 | 31 | Lech Poznan won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | +10 | 28 | Gornik Zabrze won 1 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | +12 | 24 | Legia Warszawa won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | +8 | 24 | Pogon Szczecin won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 24 | Wisla Krakow won 2 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Piast Gliwice | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | +4 | 22 | Piast Gliwice won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Zaglebie Lubin | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 22 | Zaglebie Lubin won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | GKS Katowice | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | +6 | 21 | GKS Katowice won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Motor Lublin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 | Motor Lublin won 4 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 12 | 6 | 0 | 6 | -1 | 18 | Jagiellonia won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 18 | Korona Kielce won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -7 | 15 | Wisla Plock won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Radomiak Radom | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 | Radomiak Radom won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cracovia Krakow | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | -7 | 12 | Cracovia Krakow won 1 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Widzew Łódź | 13 | 1 | 8 | 4 | -2 | 11 | Widzew Łódź won 0 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Slask Wroclaw | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -8 | 10 | Slask Wroclaw won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Raków Częstochowa | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -10 | 9 | Raków Częstochowa won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -9 | 8 | Wieczysta Kraków won 1 of the last 5 |