Austria
Austrian Bundesliga predictions
Every Austrian Bundesliga match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Austrian Bundesliga page.
4 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is TSV Hartberg, 52% against SCR Altach at home; the most evenly balanced game is WSG Wattens v Austria Vienna (WSG Wattens 38%, draw 26%, Austria Vienna 36%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Ried v Lask Linz, at 3.48.
Every match, one prediction
Today
Austrian Bundesliga1Most likely prediction
Tomorrow
Austrian Bundesliga3Most likely prediction
1 more member pick on these Austrian Bundesliga matches, with the price, stake and reasoning, from the moment each was published. £4.99 a month.Unlock every pick
Match by match
Ried v Lask LinzSat 7 Nov, 18:30
Our model makes Ried 28%, the draw 22% and Lask Linz 50%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.48 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%. The headline call is Lask Linz to win at 50%. Ried are 6th on 16 points from 11; Lask Linz are 3rd on 22 points from 11. Ried are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Lask Linz have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last three meetings was drawn.
WSG Wattens v Austria ViennaSun 8 Nov, 13:30
Our model makes WSG Wattens 38%, the draw 26% and Austria Vienna 36%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.83 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is both teams to score at 58%. WSG Wattens are 7th on 12 points from 11; Austria Vienna are 11th on 7 points from 11. WSG Wattens have won one of their last five; Austria Vienna are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats). One of the sides' last three meetings was drawn.
TSV Hartberg v SCR AltachSun 8 Nov, 13:30
Our model makes TSV Hartberg 52%, the draw 25% and SCR Altach 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.80 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is TSV Hartberg to win at 52%. TSV Hartberg are 5th on 17 points from 11; SCR Altach are 8th on 10 points from 11. TSV Hartberg have won three of their last five; SCR Altach have won two of their last five. Two of the sides' last three meetings were drawn.
Sturm Graz v Red Bull SalzburgSun 8 Nov, 16:00
Our model makes Sturm Graz 37%, the draw 28% and Red Bull Salzburg 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.60 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Sturm Graz to win at 37%. Sturm Graz are 4th on 19 points from 11; Red Bull Salzburg are 2nd on 27 points from 11. Sturm Graz have won two of their last five; Red Bull Salzburg are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). Three of the sides' last five meetings were drawn.
The numbers this season
Austrian Bundesliga has averaged 3.22 goals a game over 67 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 64% of them and both sides scoring in 55%. Home sides have won 51% of matches, 21% have been drawn and away sides have won 28%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are Austrian Bundesliga predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Austrian Bundesliga predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in Austrian Bundesliga?
- 51% of matches this season, over 67 played, with 21% drawn and 28% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.22 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 64%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.