Ried v 
Lask Linz
- Over 1.5
- 87%
- Over 2.5
- 68%
- Over 3.5
- 46%
- Both score
- 67%
- Model pick
- Lask Linz 50%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.47 – 2.01
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Lask Linz favoured against Ried
Our model makes Ried 28% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 22% and Lask Linz at 50%. The goal projection is 1.47 for Ried against 2.01 for Lask Linz — a substantial edge to Lask Linz on expected output. A combined 3.48 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 67%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-2 7%
- 2-1 7%
- 0-2 6%
This season
| Ried | Lask Linz | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 11 |
| 4-4-3 | W-D-L | 7-1-3 |
| 1.45 | Pts / game | 2.00 |
| 1.73 | Goals for / game | 2.36 |
| 1.64 | Goals against / game | 1.18 |
| 64% | Over 2.5 | 82% |
| 91% | BTTS | 55% |
| 9% | Clean sheets | 36% |
| 0% | Failed to score | 9% |
| 3-1-1 | Home record | 4-0-2 |
| 1-3-2 | Away record | 3-1-1 |
| D2 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ried · Lask Linz
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.8 | Shots | 16.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.8 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 3.4 | Corners | 6.4 |
| 2.40 | Cards | 1.40 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 8.8 |
| 45 | Possession % | 53 |
| 2.25 | xG | 1.90 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 21.2 | Shots | 10.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.4 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 7.6 | Corners | 2.2 |
| 1.85 | Cards | 2.60 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 55 | Possession % | 47 |
| 1.70 | xG | 1.34 |
| 5 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Ried | Metric | Lask Linz |
|---|---|---|
| 2.80 | Goals scored | 3.20 (better) |
| 2.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 3.00 |
| 1.97 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.96 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.00 | Shots on target | 6.25 (better) |
| 11.00 | Total shots | 15.75 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.33 | Corners | 5.75 (better) |
| 44.0 | Possession % | 46.5 (better) |
| 362 | Passes | 414 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.33 (better) | Fouls | 11.50 |
| 1.00 (better) | Offsides | 3.00 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.67 | Yellow cards | 2.50 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Ried wins
- 1
- Draws
- 1
- Lask Linz wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.67
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- Both score
- 100%
- Lask Linz v Ried4–12026-08-14
- Ried v Lask Linz1–12026-02-14
- Lask Linz v Ried1–32025-08-30
Austrian Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rapid Vienna | 12 | 11 | 0 | 1 | +30 | 33 | Rapid Vienna won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Red Bull Salzburg | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | +23 | 27 | Red Bull Salzburg won 4 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Lask Linz | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | +13 | 22 | Lask Linz won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Sturm Graz | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | +6 | 19 | Sturm Graz won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | TSV Hartberg | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | +1 | 17 | TSV Hartberg won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Ried | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 16 | Ried won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | WSG Wattens | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 | WSG Wattens won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | SCR Altach | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 10 | SCR Altach won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Grazer AK | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -19 | 10 | Grazer AK won 0 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Austria Lustenau | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -16 | 8 | Austria Lustenau won 1 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Austria Vienna | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 7 | Austria Vienna won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Wolfsberger AC | 12 | 1 | 3 | 8 | -18 | 6 | Wolfsberger AC won 0 of the last 5 |