Sturm Graz v Red Bull Salzburg

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sturm Graz v Red Bull Salzburg: too close to call

Our model makes Sturm Graz 37% to win this Austrian Bundesliga fixture, with the draw at 28% and Red Bull Salzburg at 35%. The goal projection is 1.32 for Sturm Graz against 1.28 for Red Bull Salzburg — almost nothing to Sturm Graz on expected output. A combined 2.60 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores

1-1 13%

1-0 9%

0-1 9%

2-1 8%

0-0 8%

This season

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sturm Graz · Red Bull Salzburg

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Form comparison

Sturm Graz wins

1

Draws

3

Red Bull Salzburg wins

1

Goals / game

2.20

Over 2.5

20%

Both score

60%

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