How are Saudi Pro League predictions made?

A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.

When are Saudi Pro League predictions published?

At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.

How often do home teams win in Saudi Pro League?

40% of matches this season, over 104 played, with 26% drawn and 34% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.03 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 57%.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Pro League predictions

Every Saudi Pro League match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Saudi Pro League page.

No Saudi Pro League fixtures in the next 14 days.

Nothing scheduled in the next 14 days. The Saudi Pro League table and statistics are up to date.

The numbers this season

Saudi Pro League has averaged 3.03 goals a game over 104 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 57% of them and both sides scoring in 54%. Home sides have won 40% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 34%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these predictions

How are Saudi Pro League predictions made?: A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
When are Saudi Pro League predictions published?: At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
How often do home teams win in Saudi Pro League?: 40% of matches this season, over 104 played, with 26% drawn and 34% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.03 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 57%.

The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.