Nottingham Forest v Manchester City

16th3–12nd

17:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Nottingham Forest		Manchester City
11	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	4
3	Corners	7
13	Fouls	7
4	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	0
206	Passes	753
22%	Possession %	78%
1.04	xG	1.61

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Manchester City 57%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 0.97 – 1.81

Advised bets

Free pick

Manchester City +0.25

1.48Bet365 · fair 1.32 · qualifies at 1.36+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Manchester City +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.48 with Bet365 — Manchester City starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.

Our model puts the chance at 78% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 74%; we judge it at 76%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.32. The offered 1.48 implies only 68%, so the price is 11.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Nottingham Forest 0.97, Manchester City 1.81.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

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Every market, priced — members only

11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Manchester City favoured against Nottingham Forest

Our model makes Nottingham Forest 19% to win this Premier League fixture, with the draw at 24% and Manchester City at 57%. The goal projection is 0.97 for Nottingham Forest against 1.81 for Manchester City — a substantial edge to Manchester City on expected output. A combined 2.78 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 0-1 11%; 0-2 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Nottingham Forest and Manchester City
Nottingham Forest		Manchester City
10	Played	10
2-3-5	W-D-L	7-0-3
0.90	Pts / game	2.10
0.90	Goals for / game	2.10
1.30	Goals against / game	1.30
40%	Over 2.5	70%
50%	BTTS	60%
10%	Clean sheets	30%
50%	Failed to score	10%
1-1-3	Home record	4-0-1
1-2-2	Away record	3-0-2
W1	Streak	L3

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Nottingham Forest · Manchester City

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.5	Shots	16.3
3.7	Shots on target	5.5
5.7	Corners	6.0
2.17	Cards	1.17
12.8	Fouls	11.5
46	Possession %	66
1.54	xG	2.19
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.7	Shots	10.7
3.2	Shots on target	4.7
3.8	Corners	3.7
0.83	Cards	2.87
8.5	Fouls	16.0
54	Possession %	35
1.14	xG	1.50
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Nottingham Forest	Metric	Manchester City
0.80	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
1.98	Expected goals (xG)	2.28 (better)
	Big chances
4.60	Shots on target	6.40 (better)
20.20 (better)	Total shots	18.20
	Touches in opp. box
5.60	Corners	6.20 (better)
48.4	Possession %	61.8 (better)
414	Passes	600 (better)
	Tackles
12.60	Fouls	8.80 (better)
2.00	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Nottingham Forest wins: 1
Draws: 1
Manchester City wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Nottingham Forest v Manchester City3–12026-11-07
Manchester City v Nottingham Forest2–22026-03-04
Nottingham Forest v Manchester City1–22025-12-27

Premier League table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Arsenal	10	9	0	1	+10	27	Arsenal won 5 of the last 5
2	Manchester City	10	7	0	3	+8	21	Manchester City won 2 of the last 5
3	Brighton	9	6	1	2	+17	19	Brighton won 4 of the last 5
4	Chelsea	9	5	1	3	+4	16	Chelsea won 3 of the last 5
5	Everton	10	4	4	2	+2	16	Everton won 2 of the last 5
6	Liverpool	9	4	3	2	+2	15	Liverpool won 3 of the last 5
7	Brentford	9	3	5	1	+7	14	Brentford won 2 of the last 5
8	Leeds	10	3	5	2	+2	14	Leeds won 1 of the last 5
9	Bournemouth	9	3	3	3	+1	12	Bournemouth won 3 of the last 5
10	Tottenham	10	3	3	4	-1	12	Tottenham won 3 of the last 5
11	Newcastle	10	3	3	4	-3	12	Newcastle won 1 of the last 5
12	Aston Villa	9	3	3	3	-3	12	Aston Villa won 3 of the last 5
13	Hull City	10	2	5	3	0	11	Hull City won 0 of the last 5
14	Ipswich	9	3	2	4	-4	11	Ipswich won 1 of the last 5
15	Fulham	10	2	4	4	-2	10	Fulham won 2 of the last 5
16	Nottingham Forest	10	2	3	5	-4	9	Nottingham Forest won 1 of the last 5
17	Coventry	10	3	0	7	-9	9	Coventry won 2 of the last 5
18	Manchester United	9	1	4	4	-5	7	Manchester United won 0 of the last 5
19	Crystal Palace	9	2	1	6	-12	7	Crystal Palace won 1 of the last 5
20	Sunderland	9	1	2	6	-10	5	Sunderland won 0 of the last 5