Championship · Review

Championship matchweek 15 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Championship result from matchweek 15 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 7 Nov 2026, updated 7 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Championship, matchweek 15 (6–7 November 2026), is complete: twelve matches, 39 goals (3.25 a game), eight home wins, two draws and two away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in nine of the twelve and both teams scored in eight.

The result the model rated least likely was Preston's win in Preston v Southampton (1–0), which it had at 15%; the one it rated most likely was Cardiff's win in Cardiff v Burnley (5–4), at 57%.

After the round, Birmingham lead on goal difference from Middlesbrough, both on 29 points, with Stoke City third on 29. The bottom three are Burnley (10), Derby (10), Preston (8).

Match by match

Derby 3–1 BoltonFri 6 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Derby 35%, the draw 26% and Bolton 39%, with Bolton favoured; it put Derby winning at 35%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.63–1.75: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 59%, came in. Pick published: Derby -0.5 at 2.22 — won.

Bristol City 0–5 NorwichSat 7 Nov, 12:30

Before kick-off the model had Bristol City 32%, the draw 25% and Norwich 43%, so Norwich winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.75–3.04: Norwich created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 80%, came in.

Portsmouth 1–2 Stoke CitySat 7 Nov, 12:30

Before kick-off the model had Portsmouth 40%, the draw 28% and Stoke City 32%, with Portsmouth favoured; it put Stoke City winning at 32%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.70–0.88: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Portsmouth to win at 40%, did not come in.

Wrexham 1–1 WolvesSat 7 Nov, 12:30

Before kick-off the model had Wrexham 37%, the draw 25% and Wolves 38%, with Wolves favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.21–1.47: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 81%, came in.

Birmingham 2–1 SwanseaSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Birmingham 40%, the draw 29% and Swansea 31%, so Birmingham winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.12–1.10: Birmingham created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 57%, did not come in.

Blackburn 2–1 West HamSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Blackburn 25%, the draw 24% and West Ham 51%, with West Ham favoured; it put Blackburn winning at 25%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.01–1.35: West Ham created the better chances. The headline call, West Ham to win at 51%, did not come in.

Cardiff 5–4 BurnleySat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Cardiff 57%, the draw 22% and Burnley 21%, so Cardiff winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 4.69–2.31: Cardiff created the better chances. The headline call, Cardiff to win at 57%, came in.

Charlton 2–1 Sheffield UtdSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Charlton 26%, the draw 25% and Sheffield Utd 49%, with Sheffield Utd favoured; it put Charlton winning at 26%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.18–0.89: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Sheffield Utd to win at 49%, did not come in.

Preston 1–0 SouthamptonSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Preston 15%, the draw 19% and Southampton 67%, with Southampton favoured; it put Preston winning at 15%. The likeliest score had been 1-2. Expected goals were 1.33–1.57: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Southampton to win at 67%, did not come in.

QPR 2–1 LincolnSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had QPR 36%, the draw 25% and Lincoln 39%, with Lincoln favoured; it put QPR winning at 36%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.65–1.20: QPR created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 81%, came in.

Watford 0–0 MiddlesbroughSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Watford 16%, the draw 21% and Middlesbrough 63%, with Middlesbrough favoured; it put the draw at 21%. The likeliest score had been 0-2. Expected goals were 0.39–2.17: Middlesbrough created the better chances. The headline call, Middlesbrough to win at 63%, did not come in.

West Brom 3–0 MillwallSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had West Brom 34%, the draw 29% and Millwall 38%, with Millwall favoured; it put West Brom winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.02–0.64: West Brom created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 57%, did not come in.

The numbers this season

Championship has averaged 2.96 goals a game over 180 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 62% of them and both sides scoring in 62%. Home sides have won 43% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 31%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.