Championship · Review

Championship matchweek 14 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Championship result from matchweek 14 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 5 Nov 2026, updated 5 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Championship, matchweek 14 (3–4 November 2026), is complete: twelve matches, 36 goals (3.00 a game), four home wins, three draws and five away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in seven of the twelve and both teams scored in seven.

The result the model rated least likely was Watford's win in Watford v Lincoln (1–0), which it had at 18%; the one it rated most likely was Sheffield Utd's win in Preston v Sheffield Utd (2–3), at 56%.

After the round, Southampton lead on goal difference from Middlesbrough, both on 28 points, with Wolves third on 27. The bottom three are Burnley (10), Derby (7), Preston (5).

Match by match

Blackburn 1–2 Stoke CityTue 3 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Blackburn 40%, the draw 29% and Stoke City 31%, with Blackburn favoured; it put Stoke City winning at 31%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.90–0.99: Blackburn created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 57%, did not come in. Pick published: Blackburn -0.25 at 2.25 — lost.

Charlton 0–1 BoltonTue 3 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Charlton 28%, the draw 26% and Bolton 46%, so Bolton winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.93–0.72: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Bolton to win at 46%, came in. Pick published: Bolton 0 at 2.21 — won.

Derby 0–4 NorwichTue 3 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Derby 32%, the draw 24% and Norwich 45%, so Norwich winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.73–1.82: Norwich created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 84%, came in. Pick published: Norwich +0.25 at 1.77 — won.

Portsmouth 3–1 SwanseaTue 3 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Portsmouth 35%, the draw 28% and Swansea 37%, with Swansea favoured; it put Portsmouth winning at 35%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.32–1.74: Swansea created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 55%, did not come in. Pick published: Portsmouth -0.25 at 2.30 — won.

Preston 2–3 Sheffield UtdTue 3 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Preston 21%, the draw 22% and Sheffield Utd 56%, so Sheffield Utd winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.96–2.02: Sheffield Utd created the better chances. The headline call, Sheffield Utd to win at 56%, came in. Pick published: Sheffield Utd at 2.36 (free pick) — won.

QPR 1–1 BurnleyTue 3 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had QPR 51%, the draw 24% and Burnley 25%, with QPR favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.80–0.17: QPR created the better chances. The headline call, QPR to win at 51%, did not come in. Pick published: Burnley +0.25 at 2.54 — half won.

Watford 1–0 LincolnTue 3 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Watford 18%, the draw 22% and Lincoln 60%, with Lincoln favoured; it put Watford winning at 18%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.69–0.81: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Lincoln to win at 60%, did not come in. Pick published: Watford -0.75 at 2.62 — half won.

Birmingham 3–0 MillwallTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Birmingham 38%, the draw 28% and Millwall 34%, so Birmingham winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.23–0.93: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Birmingham to win at 38%, came in. Picks published: Millwall at 3.60 — lost; Under 2.5 at 2.12 — lost.

West Brom 1–1 SouthamptonTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had West Brom 28%, the draw 25% and Southampton 47%, with Southampton favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 2.12–1.40: West Brom created the better chances. The headline call, Southampton to win at 47%, did not come in. Pick published: Southampton at 2.60 — lost.

Cardiff 3–3 West HamWed 4 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Cardiff 33%, the draw 22% and West Ham 45%, with West Ham favoured; it put the draw at 22%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.18–2.64: West Ham created the better chances. The headline call, West Ham to win at 45%, did not come in. Pick published: Cardiff at 3.60 — lost.

Wrexham 2–0 MiddlesbroughWed 4 Nov, 19:45

Before kick-off the model had Wrexham 29%, the draw 24% and Middlesbrough 47%, with Middlesbrough favoured; it put Wrexham winning at 29%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.49–0.97: Wrexham created the better chances. The headline call, Middlesbrough to win at 47%, did not come in. Pick published: Middlesbrough +0.25 at 1.65 (free pick) — lost.

Bristol City 1–2 WolvesWed 4 Nov, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Bristol City 32%, the draw 28% and Wolves 40%, so Wolves winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.73–2.23: Wolves created the better chances. The headline call, Wolves to win at 40%, came in. Pick published: Bristol City -0.25 at 2.84 — lost.

The numbers this season

Championship has averaged 2.93 goals a game over 168 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 61% of them and both sides scoring in 62%. Home sides have won 42% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.