Cardiff v West Ham

14th3–39th

19:45 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Cardiff		West Ham
7	Shots	18
4	Shots on target	10
4	Corners	6
9	Fouls	11
0	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
388	Passes	484
44%	Possession %	56%
1.18	xG	2.64

Over 1.5: 88%
Over 2.5: 71%
Over 3.5: 50%
Both score: 70%

Model pick: West Ham 45%
Likely score: 1-1 9%
Expected goals: 1.67 – 1.98

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Cardiff

3.60Bet365 · fair 3.40 · qualifies at 3.50+ · 0.57u

Why this price?

Back Cardiff to win at 3.60 with Bet365.

Our model puts the chance at 33% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 27%; we judge it at 29%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.40. The offered 3.60 implies only 28%, so the price is 6.0% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 0.57 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Cardiff 1.67, West Ham 1.98.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Cardiff	32.6%	3.07	3.65 Betano	27.4%	+5.2
Match result	Draw	22.4%	4.47	4.30 Betano	23.3%	-0.9
Match result	West Ham	45.1%	2.22	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-2.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	88.3%	1.13	1.12 Betano	89.3%	-0.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	29.4%	3.40	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	-1.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	49.5%	2.02	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-0.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	50.5%	1.98	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-1.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	70.4%	1.42	1.40 William Hill	71.4%	-1.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	29.6%	3.38	3.25 Betfair	30.8%	-1.2
Total goals	Under 1.5	11.7%	8.57	7.50 Betfair	13.3%	-1.7
Total goals	Over 2.5	70.6%	1.42	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	-0.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

West Ham favoured against Cardiff

Our model makes Cardiff 33% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 22% and West Ham at 45%. The goal projection is 1.67 for Cardiff against 1.98 for West Ham — a clear edge to West Ham on expected output. A combined 3.65 goals points to a wide-open game that could get away from either side, which puts over 2.5 at 71% and both teams to score at 70%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 9%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 9%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 7%; 2-2 7%; 1-3 6%

This season

Season records for Cardiff and West Ham
Cardiff		West Ham
15	Played	15
4-6-5	W-D-L	6-5-4
1.20	Pts / game	1.53
1.80	Goals for / game	2.47
1.80	Goals against / game	1.53
67%	Over 2.5	80%
73%	BTTS	73%
7%	Clean sheets	27%
20%	Failed to score	0%
4-4-0	Home record	3-1-3
0-2-5	Away record	3-4-1
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cardiff · West Ham

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.6	Shots	18.3
5.6	Shots on target	7.6
4.9	Corners	7.9
1.74	Cards	2.57
9.3	Fouls	12.7
54	Possession %	59
1.86	xG	1.86
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.9	Shots	10.9
6.1	Shots on target	3.4
5.1	Corners	4.1
2.43	Cards	1.43
13.6	Fouls	9.6
46	Possession %	41
1.79	xG	1.47
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Cardiff	Metric	West Ham
2.40	Goals scored	2.40
1.20	Goals conceded	1.20
2.23 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.84
	Big chances
5.20	Shots on target	7.60 (better)
16.40	Total shots	19.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.00	Corners	8.00 (better)
54.6	Possession %	60.2 (better)
451	Passes	476 (better)
	Tackles
9.60 (better)	Fouls	13.00
2.20 (better)	Offsides	2.80
	Throw-ins
1.80 (better)	Yellow cards	2.20
1.00	Red cards	0.50 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Cardiff wins: 0
Draws: 1
West Ham wins: 0
Goals / game: 6.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Cardiff v West Ham3–32026-11-04

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29	Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29	Stoke City won 4 of the last 5
4	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	28	Southampton won 2 of the last 5
5	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28	Wolves won 3 of the last 5
6	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
7	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26	Swansea won 1 of the last 5
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24	QPR won 2 of the last 5
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23	West Ham won 1 of the last 5
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21	Norwich won 4 of the last 5
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17	Charlton won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8	Preston won 1 of the last 5